Somalia Confronts Deepening Political and Security Strains as Foreign Forces Plan Redeployment
MOGADISHU — Somalia is entering a potentially volatile period as foreign troops prepare to leave key positions in Lower Shabelle, intensifying fears that militant groups could exploit a security gap while political disputes in Mogadishu continue to deepen.
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The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), including Ugandan units, is preparing to withdraw from several locations in Lower Shabelle and concentrate its forces around the Halane compound in Mogadishu, according to a report based on diplomatic correspondence.
A letter circulated to Western embassies warns of possible security developments over the next 120 days and details preparations for a reduced international presence outside the capital. The reported assessment reflects mounting concern over Somalia’s ability to maintain security as foreign forces scale back their deployments.
Uganda is one of AUSSOM’s principal troop contributors. The mission supports Somali security forces in operations against Al-Shabaab and in efforts to stabilise territory recovered from the militant group.
The planned redeployment coincides with a protracted political confrontation between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud‘s administration and opposition groups over constitutional amendments and the electoral process leading to the 2027 elections.
Those tensions have sharpened as the president seeks to consolidate backing among political and traditional constituencies. At the same time, members of the opposition-led Somali Future Council continue to oppose the government’s proposed electoral arrangements.
The report said Hassan dispatched two senior officials from the security and judicial institutions to meet opposition figures who share power arrangements with the government. He reportedly warned that pursuing a rival political structure could result in the capital being relocated and urged political actors to back his position.
Such remarks risk further straining relations with the Somali Future Council, an opposition coalition that includes prominent former leaders and representatives of federal member states.
The council has itself come under criticism for agreeing to discussions with military officials representing the president, even as the government maintains its commitment to the proposed electoral process.
According to the report, the opposition’s decision to enter negotiations without first securing a change in the government’s position on the electoral framework has prompted questions about its broader strategy.
Pressure is also building in South West State, where the security situation remains unsettled.
Several key bridges near Buurhakaba on the road linking the town with Mogadishu have reportedly been cut, potentially hindering the transport of troops and essential supplies.
The developments follow the withdrawal of federal forces from positions around Leego. Some troops who departed the area have reportedly been unwilling to return to the battlefield.
South West has been gripped by a power struggle between forces aligned with the federal government and those loyal to former regional president Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Lafta-Gareen. Control of strategic towns and military positions remains at the centre of the dispute.
The planned foreign troop redeployment, divisions in the political arena and continuing instability in South West State together pose a serious test for Hassan’s administration as Somalia approaches a sensitive electoral period.
The diplomatic warnings covering the coming 120 days underscore international concern that the overlapping political and security crises could produce wider instability.
AXADLETM
