At a time when natural diamond prices have been tumbling, Botswana is preparing to deepen its commitment to the industry. President Duma Boko announced this week that the country would double its holding in De Beers to 30%, a move that appears at odds with the market’s increasingly difficult outlook, writes Peter Fabricius for the Institute for Security Studies.
Diamonds have traditionally powered Botswana’s economy, generating 70% or more of the country’s exports, roughly one-third of government revenue and about a quarter of gross domestic product (GDP). Fabricius says the country’s 50-50 partnership with the South African diamond company, combined with Botswana’s existing 15% direct stake in De Beers, has helped sustain both economic performance and, potentially, political stability.
But the sector has faced mounting pressure since 2023, as cheaper lab-grown stones have expanded their share of the market and demand in China has weakened. Botswana’s economy contracted by 2.8% in 2024 and by another 0.7% in 2025. Against that backdrop, Boko’s announcement has unsettled many observers. Fabricius noted that one analyst described the decision as “a gamble with the odds heavily stacked against Botswana”.
