Mogadishu (AX) – The Somali government on Thursday issued a serious warning that the political turmoil and worsening conflicts in neighboring Ethiopia could directly affect operations to secure Somalia, particularly the African Union mission fighting al-Shabab.
State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Mohamed Omar Balcad, speaking in an interview with TRT World, said Ethiopia’s stability is directly linked to Somalia’s security because of the long border shared by the two countries and their deep economic, social and historical ties.
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He warned that the prolonged instability in Ethiopia could negatively affect Ethiopian forces serving in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), potentially forcing the Addis Ababa government to reduce or completely withdraw its troops to address security pressures within its own country.
Ethiopian forces are central to the AUSSOM mission, with the African Union approving the deployment of up to 2,500 Ethiopian soldiers as part of the mission, alongside troops from Uganda, Kenya, Djibouti and Egypt.
Ethiopia also maintains additional troops in Somalia under bilateral agreements. The African Union Peace and Security Council praised Ethiopia and Uganda in February for deploying additional forces as a temporary measure to address Somalia’s security situation.
In September, the Ethiopian National Defence Force completed a major rotation of its troops serving in AUSSOM’s Sector 4, an area covering parts of central Somalia. New Ethiopian troops replaced those who had been stationed in Beledweyne and Halgan for three years.
Ali Balcad stressed that a deterioration in Ethiopia’s internal security could have severe consequences for Somalia, particularly if Ethiopian troops were recalled home or if their ability to support the campaign against al-Shabab were weakened.
Such a move could place additional pressure on Somali security forces at a time when the federal government and AUSSOM are conducting intensive efforts to gradually transfer responsibility for national security to Somalia’s government security institutions.
The warning came as new fighting broke out inside Ethiopia.
Conflict between the Ethiopian federal government and forces linked to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front erupted again in September, dealing a blow to the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the devastating two-year war. Ethiopian government forces later retook most of the Tigray region, including its capital, Mekelle.
Fighting has also continued intermittently in the Amhara region. Drone strikes on a camp housing displaced people killed at least 15 people, including children, there on Oct. 30, according to people involved in the response who spoke to Reuters. It remains unclear who was officially responsible for the strikes.
Regional tensions have also risen amid worsening relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, after the two countries severed diplomatic ties. Reports have said Eritrean forces entered northern Ethiopia when the Tigray conflict resumed.
Ali Balcad also noted that the conflicts in Ethiopia could directly affect Somali communities living in Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State, which shares an extensive border with Somalia.
The AUSSOM mission replaced the African Union’s temporary mission in Somalia at the beginning of 2025. Its mandate is to support Somali forces in operations against al-Shabab, protect populated areas and critical infrastructure, and build the capacity of Somalia’s security institutions to assume responsibility for security across the country.
The African Union has repeatedly stressed that any steps to replace the mission must be carefully planned to prevent security gaps, particularly at a time when al-Shabab still has the capability to carry out major attacks in southern and central Somalia.
