A second day of possible Houthi attacks put Saudi Arabia on alert as Yemen’s escalating conflict displaced 100,000 people and prompted the UN to warn of a deepening humanitarian crisis.
With oil prices still above $100 (£74) a barrel, Qatar warned that a Houthi takeover of the Bab al-Mandab strait could trigger a global catastrophe. The narrow passage at the southern end of the Red Sea controls a major naval route to Asia and has become increasingly important for Saudi crude exports as the broader Middle East conflict restricts shipping through the strait of Hormuz in the Gulf.
- Advertisement -
An emergency meeting of the UN security council in New York heard repeated appeals for Houthi forces to exercise restraint. In a sign that Iran continues to pursue a wider diplomatic settlement, its foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, travelled to Beijing to discuss China’s potential role in resolving the related dispute over the strait of Hormuz.
Control of Hormuz – a waterway that carried a fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas in peacetime and is now subject to blockades by the US and Iran – is seen as the diplomatic key to unlocking the confrontation between Washington and Tehran. It could also help ease the connected, though smaller-scale, conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
Oil prices jumped after Reuters reported that loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu had been suspended, citing shipping industry sources. Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed almost 3% to $108 a barrel.
Prices had already risen this week after Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest crude oil exporter, shut its East-West pipeline following an attack by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis. Aramco had increased use of the Yanbu terminal after the US-Israel war on Iran began in late February.
Qatar, which is mediating in the Iran war, continues to seek the revival of a postponed meeting scheduled for Monday between Iran and most members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Talks due to take place in Oman were delayed after Saudi Arabia objected, citing what it viewed as Iranian-inspired Houthi attacks on its cities.
The Houthis claimed responsibility for a new “large-scale” assault on King Khalid airbase in Khamis Mushait, southern Saudi Arabia, saying they had used “dozens of ballistic missiles and drones”. Air raid sirens sounded on Tuesday in six governorates, including Jeddah. Although the warnings were lifted relatively quickly, they underscored an unprecedented level of insecurity across Saudi Arabia.
The Oman talks were intended to secure a regional agreement on an authorised route for commercial vessels through the strait of Hormuz. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, spoke to Oman’s foreign minister, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, on Tuesday as Washington voiced concern that Muscat could give Iran excessive control over the waterway.
If both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab were placed under the long-term control of forces hostile to the west, it would represent a major strategic setback for the US and Europe.
Ibrahim al-Hashmi, a Qatar foreign ministry official, told reporters: “The world is suffering enough with the closure of the strait of Hormuz, so we cannot also afford to add the Bab al-Mandab into that equation.” He said closing the southern gateway to the Red Sea would be “catastrophic for the entire world … and we are already seeing the consequences”.
Commercial traffic through Hormuz remained largely halted on Monday and Tuesday. A Qatar ship was disabled by Iran, while only four vessels were recorded crossing the strait on Monday, compared with a prewar daily average of about 130.
Donald Trump has so far rejected Saudi appeals for the US to join military operations aimed at pushing the Houthis north along the Red Sea coast. Houthi leaders have also spoken with the US vice-president, JD Vance, telling the White House that their forces intend only to disrupt Saudi-owned shipping and that their broader objective is to end what they describe as a Saudi blockade of Houthi-held areas. The group has signed a ceasefire agreement with the US but remains under US sanctions.
The UK is unlikely to provide Saudi Arabia with direct military support, rather than political backing, without clear instructions from Washington. Within Yemen, the next major confrontation is expected to centre on Marib, where Saudi airstrikes have sought to weaken Houthi formations.
Yemen’s ministry of foreign affairs and expatriates said: “If the world wants stability and calm in the region, it must tell the Saudis: enough interference in the Yemeni affair.”
Instead of committing troops, western governments are supplying intelligence, including targeting advice, while offering strategic assistance to efforts to unite Yemen’s fragmented anti-Houthi forces.
But Maysaa Shuja al-Deen of the Sana’a Center thinktank said: “Any renewed military campaign must be accompanied by a serious reassessment of past mistakes, meaningful reform of the Yemeni government, stronger coordination among anti-Houthi forces, and a more balanced relationship between Yemeni actors and their regional partners.”
She added: “In many cases, the Saudis choose Yemeni figures who are weak, easily manipulated, and willing to follow their orders. If they instead chose competent, strong actors who could implement a shared agenda, they would also gain the respect of other competent Yemeni figures.
“This approach contrasts with the Iranian and Emirati models, which have generally given their local allies more room to manoeuvre while building relationships around specific objectives and clearer mandates.”
The weakness of Yemen’s UN-recognised government has allowed militias with distinct ideological and regional loyalties to operate alongside the official national army. On paper, anti-Houthi forces could number as many as 500,000 troops, but those groups do not always cooperate or agree to fight beyond their own areas.
Saudi Arabia supports Yemen’s Homeland Shield Forces, while the United Arab Emirates previously backed the 80,000-strong Giants Brigade of the Southern Transitional Council and a 20,000-strong force commanded by Tareq Saleh. After supporting separatist forces in the south, however, the UAE has now withdrawn from Yemen.
