Nairobi (ICRC) – Somalia is bracing for a potentially devastating climate shock, with experts warning that a record El Niño event could bring severe flooding between October and December.
In Bayahaaw village, outside the central Somali town of Jowhar, farmers face an impossible choice: sow their fields and risk watching floodwaters destroy the crops, or leave them uncultivated and confront hunger next year.
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Nuh Adan, a farmer and community leader in Bayahaaw, worries that a breach along the riverbanks could cripple agriculture for months.
“If the river breaks and the floods hit us, the effects will last until the next rainy season in March,” Adan says.
The threat recalls the devastation of 2023, when flooding affected nearly two million people and displaced more than 500,000 across Somalia. Along the Shabelle and Juba rivers, broken levees could again wipe out livelihoods and engulf entire villages. But farmers cannot afford to postpone planting.
“We have seen maize cobs that were not yet fully developed, only needing 15 to 25 days to be ready for harvest, being destroyed by floods,” says Adan. “And we just had to bear the loss. But abandoning the farms is not an option.”
The latest analysis by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) warns that above-average rainfall and the flooding that follows could worsen hunger across Somalia. Among those most exposed are the 3.3 million people living in informal displacement settlements, where heavy rains could bring another round of severe hardship.
Many of the camps house families displaced by conflict in cramped structures made from sticks, scraps of fabric and iron sheets. Access to clean water is limited, while adequate sanitation is often unavailable.
“We are terrified of the upcoming rains,” says 59-year-old Kamillo Muse, who lives in Ceeynu Nasri displacement camp in Jowhar. “After three years of not having good rainfall, it feels like it will return with a vengeance.”
“If it pours, forget those living in displacement camps. Even people in proper houses will be forced to flee. So what do you expect will happen to us in the camps?” she adds.
Humanitarian agencies are now on alert, introducing anticipatory measures and applying lessons from the 2023 floods in an effort to limit damage before water levels rise. Their ability to respond, however, has been sharply reduced by major funding cuts across the humanitarian sector.
“Better preparation and better data. That’s the good news compared to 2023,” says Antoine Grand, head of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Somalia. “The bad news is that humanitarian funding and capacity in general have seriously decreased.”
The ICRC and the Somali Red Crescent Society (SRCS) are preparing for possible flooding by distributing sandbags and placing tarpaulins, mosquito nets and hygiene supplies in areas at risk. The organizations are also replenishing medical and nutrition stocks at supported health facilities to help keep them functioning. In addition, SRCS volunteers in Kismayo, Bardere, Jowhar and Beletweyne have undergone boat training so they can respond during flood emergencies.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a recurring climate pattern that originates in the equatorial Pacific and can disrupt weather systems around the world, producing drought in some areas and unusually heavy rain in others. In Somalia, it could intensify the October–December 2026 Deyr rains, raising the risk of severe flooding, particularly along the Shabelle and Juba rivers.
