A potentially exceptional El Niño event has become firmly established across the tropical Pacific, and the World Meteorological Organization says it is on course to intensify into a “very strong” episode in the months ahead.
The powerful warming pattern could disrupt rainfall and temperature trends across much of the world, bringing heightened flood risks to some regions, drought to others and further episodes of extreme heat.
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According to the WMO, almost every land area is likely to record above-normal temperatures during the coming months.
Forecasting centres affiliated with the organisation have placed the likelihood of El Niño continuing through February 2027 at almost 100% — an unusually high level of confidence.
The event is expected to build through the autumn before reaching its peak towards the end of 2026. Its effects on the climate, however, are likely to persist well into 2027.
Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Forecasting at the UK Met Office, said the developing event could become the largest El Niño in living memory and possibly the most significant since the 19th century.
He said that, as a consequence, 2027 is “very likely” to overtake 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.
El Niño brings an increased risk of floods, drought and extreme heat (stock pic)
While an exceptionally strong El Niño can trigger major changes in atmospheric circulation, rainfall and temperatures worldwide, its impact differs sharply from one location to another.
Not every region will face extreme conditions, while the pattern’s effects on Ireland and Europe remain considerably harder to predict.
El Niño generally reaches its peak between November and February. Its effect on global average temperatures can continue beyond that period and is often strongest during the year after the event first develops.
The WMO says the Pacific’s surface waters have already reached exceptional levels, with average temperatures in recent weeks as much as 2.6°C above normal.
More remarkable still is the heat held below the Pacific’s surface. In parts of the ocean, temperatures were more than 8°C above average during July and early August.
That vast reserve of excess heat helps explain the WMO’s confidence that the current El Niño will continue strengthening.
In response, the organisation is coordinating an unusually extensive international preparedness and early-warning operation with national meteorological services, UN bodies and humanitarian agencies.
Its main concerns include agriculture, food security, water supplies, public health and energy, alongside the humanitarian fallout from floods, drought and extreme heat.
The WMO emphasises that El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon and is not caused by human-induced climate change.
However, the event is unfolding on a planet that is already significantly warmer, with ocean temperatures also running at unusually high levels.
