Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel today for the first time since July 24, as intensifying attacks across the Middle East — including strikes on tankers — dashed hopes that oil shipping through the region would return to normal.
The surge brought futures into step with physical crude and fuel markets, where prices had already moved beyond the psychologically important $100 mark.
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Front-month Brent futures rose $2.66, or 2.7%, to $100.60 a barrel this evening after reaching $100.95 earlier. US West Texas Intermediate gained $2.65, or 2.8%, to $95.68, its highest level since early June.
Brent has climbed sharply since the Iran war began on February 28, reaching as high as $126.41 a barrel on April 30.
Fighting has intensified dramatically in recent days in the six-month-old conflict. US forces struck several Iranian oil tankers, while Iran targeted a US base in Jordan and launched attacks on shipping.
One seafarer was killed in an incident involving the Gibraltar-flagged oil products tanker Hercules Star while it was anchored off Dubai, the vessel’s charterer, Peninsula, said today.
Oil installations in Saudi Arabia have also been set ablaze this week after attacks by Iran-backed Houthis, raising fears that the conflict could spread significantly further.
The violence threatens crude shipments through the Red Sea, a vital alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, where oil flows have already been sharply reduced.
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“Market participants appear to be pricing in a more prolonged conflict in the Middle East, along with the possibility that the latest wave of military strikes will interrupt oil flows from the region,” said Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.
“The key risk is whether the recent attacks on oil tankers lead to fewer ship-to-ship transfers taking place in the Gulf of Oman, which have so far played a key role in providing oil to global markets and keeping a lid on prices,” he added.
A drone struck a tanker carrying about 2 million barrels of Iraqi fuel oil in Iraqi territorial waters today, port officials said. UKMTO, a British navy-linked agency, said several merchant vessels in the Gulf had also been hit by disabling fire overnight.
In the week before fighting resumed on August 30, between roughly 8 million and 9 million barrels per day had passed through Hormuz — twice the previous week’s volume — according to Rystad Energy Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti.
Since then, flows have dropped below 2 million bpd. Preliminary Kpler shipping data showed that six commodity vessels crossed the strait yesterday, down from nine the previous day and below the 10-day average of about 12.
In the physical crude market, dated Brent — the benchmark used to price roughly two-thirds of global supply — has remained above $100 a barrel since September 3, according to LSEG data.
Physical oil markets respond more quickly than futures because they involve nearer-term deliveries, while futures contracts typically begin a month out. When supplies are disrupted, buyers must move quickly to secure alternative cargoes.
Consumers, meanwhile, have spent most of this year paying more than $100 for oil through refined products such as gasoline and diesel. Conflicts have contributed to a global refining crunch, driving fuel prices sharply higher even relative to crude.
European diesel futures stood at about $199 a barrel on Wednesday and have not fallen below $100 since the Iran war began.
Diesel refining margins — the premium fuel commands over crude — have remained at record levels since August as shortages tightened markets, reaching $78.90 a barrel on September 1.
That compares with an average margin of $21 a barrel in 2025 and $19.52 in 2024.
“We’re in a situation where actually, if we had normal refining margins, crude would be the equivalent of about $150,” said Alan Gelder, senior vice-president for refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie.
Global refining capacity is under pressure because exports through the Strait of Hormuz and from Russia have declined, while Asian refineries have also kept throughputs restrained, he added.
European gas prices also surged, reaching their highest level since early 2023 and moving above €80 per megawatt-hour (MWh), as conflict between the United States and Iran flared again and Europe’s reserves remained seasonally low.
The Dutch TTF contract — Europe’s benchmark for gas — rose 4.4% to €79.21 per MWh after earlier touching €80.99, with the increase coming as the region seeks to rebuild stocks ahead of winter.
