Renewed Fighting in Ethiopia May Alter Its Military Presence in Somalia
MOGADISHU, Somalia — Ethiopia is weighing the withdrawal of more than 3,000 troops from Somalia as renewed clashes at home increase pressure on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government to redirect military resources to the expanding conflict inside Ethiopia, people familiar with the matter said.
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The troops may leave within days or weeks, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the plans who were not authorised to speak publicly.
It remained unclear whether the move would involve Ethiopian personnel serving under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), troops deployed through bilateral security arrangements with Mogadishu, or both.
A Somali defence official said Thursday that Addis Ababa had not formally informed the government of any planned withdrawal. Ethiopia has not publicly confirmed the reported plans.
Ethiopia maintains thousands of troops in Somalia and is a central security partner of the federal government in its campaign against Al-Shabaab, the al Qaeda-linked militant group. Ethiopian forces have operated across several parts of Somalia for years, including locations near the countries’ long shared border.
A major reduction in those forces could deepen security pressures, especially in areas where Ethiopian troops have backed Somali units during operations against Al-Shabaab.
Ethiopia has previously redeployed troops from Somalia when domestic fighting intensified. During the two-year Tigray war, which began in 2020, Ethiopian forces were reportedly brought home to support military operations inside the country.
The latest reported plans emerge as violence has escalated again in northern Ethiopia, particularly in Tigray, where federal forces and allied groups have clashed with Tigrayan forces and other armed factions.
The renewed violence comes after a 2022 peace agreement brought the devastating Tigray conflict to an end. Recent clashes have reportedly included ground operations and drone strikes, while interruptions to communications and transport have made access to affected areas more difficult.
The earlier war killed hundreds of thousands of people. Researchers and international organisations have produced death-toll estimates in the hundreds of thousands, though the figures vary because access to the region was heavily restricted during the conflict.
Diplomatic sources and video evidence cited by Reuters suggested that pro-government forces had seized the strategic town of Alamata in Tigray and moved towards Mekelle, the regional capital. The reports could not immediately be independently verified.
The renewed clashes have also prompted fears of a wider escalation. Tigrayan forces have forged relationships with other armed groups opposed to Abiy’s government, raising the possibility that the conflict could spread beyond Tigray.
Ethiopian officials have accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing opposition forces. All three countries have rejected the allegations, which have further strained relations in the already volatile Horn of Africa.
The fighting has heightened humanitarian concerns as communications remain disrupted in parts of Tigray and aid organisations face growing difficulty reaching affected communities.
In Somalia, a sizeable Ethiopian withdrawal could increase the burden on Somali security forces and other international forces engaged in the fight against Al-Shabaab.
The potential redeployment comes as Somalia anticipates further changes to the international security presence, including a wider shift towards Somali-led operations. Any reduction in Ethiopian military support could therefore have significant implications for security along the border and in other parts of the country.
AXADLETM
