With US forces due to leave their remaining bases in neighbouring Iraq, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has called on Americans to vote out President Donald Trump’s congressional allies — a withdrawal Tehran is celebrating as a strategic victory.
At the same time, Qatar pressed ahead with shuttle diplomacy aimed at ending the seven-month-old war between Iran and the United States, while Mr Trump again predicted that Tehran would soon surrender.
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In a 26-page letter published yesterday, the IRGC urged Americans to use their political influence to remove current leaders from office and reject Washington’s support for Israel and its military interventions overseas.
The appeal is unlikely to reach many US voters, given that it appeared in Iranian media. But it highlights issues US political analysts say could damage Mr Trump and the Republican Party before the 3 November congressional elections, when opposition Democrats could regain control of one or both chambers and obstruct the president’s legislative agenda.
Iranians walk past a wall decorated with the image of assassinated Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Mr Trump campaigned in 2024 on promises to avoid new wars, wind down existing conflicts and reduce inflation. Yet the war with Iran, launched by Mr Trump alongside Israel, has driven global fuel prices higher and widened instability across the Middle East.
Only 17% of respondents approved of Mr Trump’s handling of the cost of living, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published 21 September. The issue ranks as the leading factor Americans say will shape their votes in November. Just 34% approved of the strikes on Iran.
Mr Trump, who broke with Republican orthodoxy in 2016 by calling the US invasion of Iraq a major mistake, permitted the final withdrawal from Iraq today under an agreement reached in 2024 by former President Joe Biden.
The departure comes 23 years after US-led forces overthrew Saddam Hussein, setting off turmoil that eventually helped bring about the rise of Islamic State.
Qatari mediation
The US war in Iran has drawn several of Tehran’s regional allies into the conflict, including Yemen’s Houthis, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and militias in Iraq. Riyadh blamed those forces for the 10 September attack that forced Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline offline.
Iran says its ultimate objective is to drive American forces out of the entire Middle East. It has portrayed the US exit from Iraq as a victory for its regional “axis of resistance”, the network of allied armed groups it supports.
Despite several rounds of negotiations and multiple ceasefires, Washington and Tehran have yet to find a way to bring the war to an end.
Talks appeared to gain momentum during last week’s UN General Assembly meeting in New York, but no agreement has emerged on reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Before the war began in February, the waterway carried 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
Qatar has once again stepped forward as a potential mediator after playing a supporting role in the June memorandum of understanding that produced a short-lived ceasefire. US and Iranian officials held separate discussions with Qatari mediators on Monday, although it was unclear whether further exchanges took place yesterday.
“We are exchanging messages between the parties, and we’re working towards establishing a common ground in order to get into a deal that would save all of us from the repercussions of the conflict,” Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari told reporters.
Mr Trump, meanwhile, reiterated that Iran must not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon and insisted that the war would end soon.
Mr Trump has consistently stated that Iran must not obtain a nuclear weapon
The conflict has weakened Iran’s conventional military forces and inflicted further damage on its struggling economy. Tehran has responded with missile and drone attacks against US allies in the Gulf while restricting tanker traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, helping push global energy prices higher.
“I don’t know if they are going to give up yet but they’ll give up,” Mr Trump told reporters yesterday.
“They are doing very poorly,” he added.
At last week’s United Nations General Assembly, Iran presented a peace proposal that would begin a seven-day countdown toward reopening the strait and suspending hostilities.
Mr Trump rejected the proposal on Saturday. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday, however, that Washington had not formally communicated its rejection through mediators.
Mr Trump has identified the degradation of Iran’s nuclear capabilities as one of his war aims, alongside ending Tehran’s ability to attack neighbouring countries and creating conditions that could allow Iranians to overthrow their leaders.
Iran does not possess nuclear weapons and denies pursuing them. The United States is a nuclear-armed state. Tehran maintains that, as a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it has the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.
