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Somalia’s furious reaction to Israel’s stated recognition of North Western State of Somalia is understandable. It is also exactly the point. The gambit is not about law, where a single foreign announcement does not conjure a state into being. It is about misdirection—forcing Mogadishu into weeks of outrage and rebuttal while more consequential contests move to quieter arenas: Washington, European capitals, investor committees and newsrooms that define the frame others use. In geopolitics, the oldest trick isn’t surprise.…

Somalia’s latest political confrontation is more than a quarrel over election dates. It is a stress test of the country’s post-debt-relief political order—and, by extension, of the international state-building model that has underwritten Mogadishu’s progress for more than a decade. At the center is the National Consultation Conference, an opposition-aligned gathering that closed this week in Kismayo with a stark indictment of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government. Its communiqué accuses the presidency of…