Opinion: Somalia Is Central to Red Sea Security — and the Arab World Can’t Afford to Overlook It
Global markets don’t advertise their weak points; they reveal them when the world’s shipping arteries tighten, energy prices jump and supply chains falter. Few chokepoints matter more right now than the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. And within that corridor, one actor remains consistently underestimated: Somalia.
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Somalia has long been reduced to a shorthand for fragility. That frame obscures a transition hiding in plain sight. The country is rebuilding state institutions, reasserting sovereignty and positioning itself as a frontline partner for regional security at the intersection of the Arab world, Africa, the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. Geography is destiny here — and it favors neither neglect nor delay.
With the longest coastline on mainland Africa, Somalia sits beside the Bab al-Mandeb, the narrow gate linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. A significant share of global trade and energy flows through this passage. Any instability along Somalia’s coast ripples outward into shipping reliability, fuel prices and food security — issues that land squarely on Arab economies and consumer markets.
That interdependence reframes Somalia from periphery to pivot. Stabilizing its shoreline and hinterland helps block threats before they approach the Arabian Peninsula, whether in the form of transnational terrorism, illicit trafficking, piracy or opportunistic external military presences along Africa’s eastern flank. In other words, Somalia’s stability is Arab collective security by another name.
Progress, while uneven, is measurable. Federal governance is functioning. National security forces are undergoing professionalization. Public financial management has improved. Diplomatically, Mogadishu has reasserted itself in the Arab League, the African Union and other multilateral forums. The through-line is a bid for sovereign statehood and territorial unity anchored in partnership, not dependency.
Economically, the logic aligns. Somalia’s accession to the East African Community links it to one of the world’s fastest-growing population and consumer regions. That integration positions Somalia as a bridge for Gulf capital into African growth markets and as a logistics and transshipment node tying the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean and East Africa’s interior. With targeted investment in ports, transport corridors and maritime security, Somalia can become a critical link in diversified, resilient supply chains that serve Gulf food security and trade.
The human engine is no less important. More than 70 percent of Somalis are under 30 — urbanizing, connected and entrepreneurial. Somali business networks already knit together markets across southern and eastern Africa in logistics, finance, retail and services. A large, productive diaspora spanning the Gulf, Europe, North America and Africa amplifies that reach through remittances, investment and expertise.
None of this is durable without security. A capable, nationally legitimate Somali security sector is the foundation for investment confidence and regional integration. For Gulf states and the wider Arab world, supporting Somali security is not charity; it is a hedge against spiraling costs should the corridor fracture further.
Effective support should avoid short-term fixes and proxy competition. Instead, it should emphasize Somali ownership, institution-building and staying power — the kind of investments that yield compounding returns in maritime security, counterterrorism and protected infrastructure.
- Build institutions, not dependencies: prioritize training, doctrine, accountability and financing systems that outlast political cycles.
- Secure the maritime domain: enhance coastal surveillance, interdiction capacity and joint exercises that protect energy lanes and deter illicit actors.
- Back ports and corridors that connect: align capital toward interoperable ports, roads and dry ports that tie Somalia to regional trade arteries.
- Leverage the diaspora: channel remittances and know-how into bankable infrastructure and small-business growth, supported by transparent rules.
- Coordinate multilaterally: align Arab League, African Union and East African Community efforts to minimize duplication and close governance gaps.
The urgency is not theoretical. The Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are entering a phase of sharper strategic contestation. Fragmentation along Africa’s eastern seaboard is a direct risk to Arab collective security. Recent developments have raised the stakes further. The Somali perspective points to Israel’s unilateral recognition of the northern Somali region of North Western State of Somalia — pursued outside international legal frameworks and without Mogadishu’s consent — as an effort to secure a foothold along these strategic waters, with the potential to inject the Arab-Israeli conflict into the Gulf’s security equation. Even more alarming are circulating notions about the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, including proposals to relocate them to North Western State of Somalia against their will. Whatever their formal status, such ideas would violate international law and human dignity and would export instability rather than resolve it.
The lesson is plain: allowing external actors to fracture sovereign states or instrumentalize fragile regions for unrelated conflicts carries long-term consequences that will not remain confined to the Horn of Africa. Somalia’s unity and stability align with core Arab positions on sovereignty, justice and self-determination — and, crucially, with material interests in secure sea lanes and predictable markets.
Somalia is not asking for a blank check. It is asking to be treated as a partner with aligned interests: a state building credible security institutions, connecting into a dynamic regional bloc, and offering a young labor force and strategic coastline to underpin shared prosperity. Calibrated support for its security forces and logistics infrastructure would pay dividends in the form of safer shipping, better-managed borders, diversified trade routes and fewer openings for hostile actors.
The policy choice facing Arab capitals is not whether Somalia matters in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden strategy. It is whether to move now to lock in a stabilizing partnership — or to wait until costs rise and options narrow. In a corridor where geography punishes hesitation, the prudent course is to invest early in the partner sitting astride the gate.
Somalia is ready to be part of the solution. The question is whether the region will act on that reality before others do.
The views reflected here synthesize arguments advanced by Somalia’s leadership and align with long-standing regional priorities on security, sovereignty and sustainable growth. On the ground and at sea, implementation — institution by institution, port by port — is where those priorities will be tested.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
By Ali OmarState Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Federal Republic of Somalia.Monday February 9, 2026
