Somalia: Could Hassan Sheikh Use Force in Hiran as He Did in Baidoa?
MOGADISHU, Somalia (AX) — The selection of Ali Gudlawe as the Justice and Solidarity Party’s, or JSP’s, candidate for the Hirshabelle presidency has reopened a deep power-sharing dispute—and fueled fears that Villa Somalia could resort to force in Hiran, as it did in Baidoa.
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Somalia’s federal government, whose mandate has expired, seized Baidoa after Abdiaziz Laftagareen rejected the electoral model favored by Villa Somalia. The move came despite Laftagareen’s earlier cooperation with the federal leadership on constitutional amendments.
The JSP later named Adan Madobe as its candidate for South West State, Liban Shuluq for Galmudug and Ali Gudlawe for Hirshabelle. Under the electoral framework promoted by Hassan Sheikh, securing the JSP nomination effectively places a candidate on course to become president of the relevant regional state, leaving little room for genuine competition or a credible election. Somali politicians have likened the process to the tightly managed polls held under the former military dictatorship’s Somali Revolutionary Socialist Party.
Hirshabelle, in south-central Somalia, was formed in 2016 through the merger of Hiran and Middle Shabelle. The founding political agreement made Jowhar the state capital and reserved the presidency for the Hawadle clan. Tensions sharpened in 2020 when Ali Gudlawe, an Abgaal, assumed the presidency—a development parts of the Hiran community viewed as a breach of the power-sharing arrangement.
Several communities live in Hirshabelle, but the contest for the presidency has principally pitted the Hawadle against the Abgaal. Hawadle leaders have long opposed the administration of Hiran from Jowhar, a city located in an area largely populated by the Abgaal.
Hirshabelle Vice President Yusuf Dabageed has accused Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of abandoning a pledge to restore the presidency to the Hawadle. The clan is Hassan Sheikh’s maternal lineage and had expected him to honor those commitments. Gudlawe’s nomination has instead reinforced the view among many Hawadle that they have once again been excluded from the state’s top office.
The Hawadle also led the 2022 revolt against Al-Shabaab that began in Hiran. Local fighters known as the Macawiisley recaptured large areas of Hiran and parts of Middle Shabelle before the federal government joined the campaign in full. The International Crisis Group previously reported that the federal government used the Hawadle-led uprising as the foundation for its wider offensive against Al-Shabaab.
No independently verified information currently indicates that Villa Somalia intends to send troops to Hiran to impose the electoral process. Yet the federal takeover of Baidoa, and the clashes that followed, showed how quickly a political dispute can turn into an armed confrontation.
Somalis are now asking whether Hassan Sheikh, after deploying federal forces carrying weapons meant for the fight against Al-Shabaab in response to opposition in Baidoa, will adopt the same strategy against resistance emerging in Hiran—especially opposition from the Hawadle, his maternal relatives.
AXADLETM
