Somalia’s Electoral Crises Recur Every Four Years, Hiiraan Online Reports

By Abdishakur Ali MireWednesday June 3, 2026

Somalia is again slipping into political uncertainty, this time driven by the continued failure to settle on a national electoral framework.

Every four years, the country appears to relive the same cycle: political tension rises, institutions reach the end of their mandate, and disputes sharpen in the absence of a credible agreement on how elections should be conducted.

At the heart of the crisis is the lack of a nationally endorsed electoral model capable of ending repeated political standoffs and providing a durable structure for future votes.

Another factor behind the recurring turmoil is the limited political will among Somali elites, who have yet to build the kind of durable foundation needed for an electoral system that can address the country’s long-term challenges.

Instead, many leaders have favored short-term arrangements shaped by immediate political advantage, advancing a process that reappears every four years to serve shifting ambitions.

Successive governments have also struggled to create an inclusive process that all sides can accept, while failing to shield the country from recurring disputes among political stakeholders.

The struggle for power, along with the absence of firm power-sharing arrangements between the federal government and the federal member states, has produced an environment in which the two levels of government cannot work together effectively in the national interest.

That rivalry has only widened the divisions in Somalia’s political landscape, especially around elections and constitutional questions.

As disagreements over the constitution, the electoral process and other sensitive national issues have deepened in recent months between federal leaders, regional administrations and opposition groups, Mogadishu has seen a fresh wave of hostile activity.

Both the federal government and opposition leaders have positioned their forces for the possibility of confrontation, while opposition groups have vowed to go ahead with their planned national political rally on 4 June against president HSM’S electoral policies.

Even after diplomatic messages from the UN and Western partners urging Somali leaders to avoid violence and embrace dialogue, the positions of the government and the opposition appear to remain unchanged.

The opposition leadership has already begun relocating to different parts of Mogadishu, with reports of hostile activity in those areas.

Against the backdrop of regional geopolitical pressures affecting Somalia’s sovereignty and unity, the security threat posed by Al-Shabaab, prolonged drought across the country, and years of unresolved political disputes between the federal government, regional authorities and opposition groups, Somalia is likely to remain fragile and exposed to fresh crises.

To stop the situation from deteriorating further into violence and a deeper political breakdown that could undermine state-building and national unity, Somali political stakeholders and international partners, including friendly countries, should take decisive steps to break the deadlock and push for national dialogue.

President HSM has a constitutional duty to protect the country from political chaos and violence. In the interest of the nation, he should meet the challenge head-on and make meaningful compromises to help end the impasse.

The federal member states and opposition groups also have a national responsibility to keep Somalia from sliding into armed conflict.

They should advance a national agenda that encourages dialogue and political consensus among stakeholders, rather than turning to military means for solutions.

The international community has stood with Somalia for three decades and invested heavily in the state-building effort. It should now use its diplomatic leverage to promote political dialogue and national consensus on disputed issues before instability and violence deepen further.

While current political energy is focused on electoral disputes and efforts to find common ground, it remains essential to remember that the root of the recurring crisis is the absence of a nationally agreed electoral system — one that would prevent the country from repeating the same political drama every four years.

Somali political elites and actors, whether in government or opposition, should therefore focus on securing a lasting political solution to this problem rather than relying on temporary fixes.

Abdishakur Ali MireMember of the Somali Parliament

The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect Hiiraan Online’s editorial stance.