Latvia’s parliamentary election is expected to leave pro-Ukraine Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs in a position to retain power, but a fractured political landscape could make building a governing coalition a difficult task.
Voters across the Baltics, including NATO and European Union member Latvia, have headed to the polls amid heightened anxiety over official warnings of possible Russian aggression and a rising number of airspace violations linked to Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
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Russia rejects claims that it intends to attack NATO, while Western officials say Moscow lacks the ability to launch a direct assault. Even so, security fears have played a central role in Latvia’s campaign.
Polling has placed Mr Kulbergs’ centrist United List in front with roughly 14% support, though it is being closely pursued by the openly pro-Russian Sovereign Power.
Although the drones involved were Ukrainian, officials have accused Russia of creating the conditions that forced them off course.
“We have to give Ukraine everything necessary right now (so) that they can have the upper hand and win,” Mr Kulbergs said in an interview last month.
During the campaign, he has pledged to expand Latvia’s anti-drone defences and keep military spending at 5% of gross domestic product — among the highest levels in NATO.
His pro-Kremlin opponents, however, argue that Latvia should end its support for Ukraine and devote greater attention to rising living costs, especially for the country’s Russian-speaking minority.
“Our voters want peace, to stop looking for shelters, to no longer experience the air alerts,” party leader Julia Stepanenko said.
“The war must not be encouraged in any way, including by financing it… Ukraine must win, but through peace talks”.
Polling stations opened at 8am local time and are due to close at 8pm. Initial results are expected within hours, while the final outcome may not become clear until after midnight. Voters are choosing all 100 members of the Saeima, Latvia’s parliament, for four-year terms.
Surveys indicate that at least two more parties could clear the parliamentary threshold: the populist, MAGA-style Latvia First grouping and the left-leaning Progressives, which draws significant support from younger voters.
The number of seats won by those parties — along with the total number of groups that pass the 5% barrier — is likely to determine whether Mr Kulbergs can assemble a functioning coalition.
He may also have to negotiate with Latvia First leader and businessman Ainars Slesers, who appears to have adopted a more anti-Ukraine position in recent months while seeking support from voters on both sides of the debate.
“His message is that (the party) condemns Russia’s invasion and stands with Ukraine, but that supporting Ukraine comes at the expense of Latvia’s economy,” said Roberts Kits, a researcher at the Latvian Strategy and Economic Research Institute, in a note.
Home to 1.9 million people, Latvia lies between the Baltic Sea and its EU and NATO allies Estonia and Lithuania to the north and south, and Russia and Belarus to the east.
