Tigray rebels in Ethiopia declared Thursday that the region was once again in “full-blown war” with the federal government, as reports emerged of heavy artillery fire in neighboring states, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP).
The renewed fighting has effectively broken the peace agreement that ended Ethiopia’s devastating two-year civil war in 2022. Rebel forces are now mobilizing for an armed campaign they hope will ultimately remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government.
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Tensions between Addis Ababa and authorities in northern Tigray have been building for months. The region was the center of a 2020-22 conflict that killed more than 600,000 people, according to estimates by the African Union.
Both sides accuse the other of provoking this week’s violence. A broader confrontation could also pull neighboring Eritrea into the conflict.
On Wednesday, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which dominates the region, took control of three airports from federal police and launched attacks into the neighboring states of Afar and Amhara.
A humanitarian source in Afar told AFP that Tigray forces used heavy artillery Thursday in an attempt to capture Yallo, a town near the Tigray border.
“We are in full-blown war now,” said Amanuel Assefa, the TPLF’s vice president.
Assefa confirmed that Tigray forces were fighting alongside local armed groups in both Afar and Amhara.
A foreign security source based in Ethiopia said rebels had captured Abala, also located along the Tigray-Afar border, on Wednesday. A TPLF source claimed the group had seized several other towns in Afar, though that account could not be independently confirmed.
The foreign security source also reported fighting near Weldiya, an Amhara town situated along one of the few routes leading to Addis Ababa.
The developments resemble the Tigray forces’ strategy during the 2020-22 war, when they sought to sever supply lines and advance toward the capital, analysts said.
“Their stated aim is to take Addis, but their tactical maneuvers to reach the city are not yet known,” said Kjetil Tronvoll, a regional expert at Oslo New University College.
Tronvoll said the operation in Afar was likely intended to disrupt supplies arriving from Djibouti. The port country handles almost all of Ethiopia’s international trade cargo, including fuel.
Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday, Ethiopian President Taye Atske Selassie condemned what he called “the forces of destruction and mayhem” and denounced “interference in our internal affairs by adversarial elements.”
Analysts say the Tigray rebels have backing from Eritrea, which fears that landlocked Ethiopia may seek to invade its territory to secure access to the Red Sea.
Asked by AFP about Eritrea’s intentions, Assefa said, “We have no information about Eritrea’s plans.” Asked whether the TPLF would seek Eritrean intervention, he replied, “Not yet.”
Ethiopia is also facing tensions with Sudan, whose army has accused Addis Ababa of supporting its paramilitary adversaries, the Rapid Support Forces. Disputes have likewise emerged with Türkiye, Somalia and Egypt over a range of issues.
The renewed conflict comes at a difficult moment for Washington. Earlier this month, the United States lifted sanctions and arms embargoes imposed on Ethiopia and Eritrea over the 2020-22 war, saying the related “national emergency … has expired.”
The U.S. Embassy in Ethiopia criticized the TPLF on Wednesday, saying it was “disappointed to see TPLF leadership … launch a large-scale offensive.”
In Amhara, the TPLF is fighting alongside the insurgent group Fano. The two groups joined five other armed organizations this past weekend to form an anti-government alliance.
The alignment underscores how much Ethiopia’s battlefield politics have shifted since the 2020-22 war. At that time, Fano and Eritrean forces fought on the government’s side against Tigray, but both were frustrated after the 2022 peace agreement was reached.
The TPLF governed Ethiopia from 1991 until 2018, when it was sidelined following the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The political rupture eventually helped set the stage for the 2020-22 civil war.
The Pretoria Peace Agreement, signed in 2022, preserved an uneasy calm until clashes resumed late last year.
Since then, the federal government has carried out drone strikes in Tigray and concentrated troops along the region’s border.
Rights groups have accused the TPLF of forcibly recruiting people this year as it prepared for a renewed conflict. About 1 million people remain displaced from the 2020-22 war.
