By: Afyare A. ElmiMonday July 20, 2026
A fresh round of internationally facilitated talks between the government and opposition is scheduled for Monday, July 20, 2026, with two competing election models at the center of the negotiations.
Summary of Proposals
The plan now advanced by President @HassanSMohamud’s administration was first put forward in 2019 under former President @M_Farmajo. It calls for a single national constituency, open-list proportional representation organized through political parties, and one central election commission. Yet the government’s constitution and its 2024 Election Law differ on key elements. The 2024 law provides for competition among three parties, while the new constitution says associations would compete and that any group meeting a 10% threshold would qualify as a recognized party. Under the model, voters would select parties rather than candidates, parties would retain ownership of seats with no defections permitted, and an election commission appointed by the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) would oversee every vote.
The opposition proposal draws on a 2020 parliamentary plan drafted by a committee chaired by former MP Abdullahi Arab. It adopts a First Past the Post system, with seats reserved for the clans and sub-clans that hold them and located in cities near the relevant sub-clan’s traditional home. Voters could cast ballots for any seat they choose and would elect individual candidates, not parties. Responsibility for the election commission would be shared among the FGS, Federal Member States (FMS), and the opposition.
Despite the competing rhetoric, neither framework amounts to a direct one-person, one-vote election system; both remain indirect models.
Commentary
The government’s proposal faces major practical obstacles. The dispute has narrowed to three central issues: Which electoral formula should apply? Should voters choose parties or individual candidates? And what should be the size of the electoral district, or constituency?
The government supports Open-List Proportional Representation, allowing voters to choose parties in one nationwide constituency. The opposition instead backs First Past the Post, in which voters select candidates in constituencies tied to the sub-clans that own the seats. That approach would create 275 clan constituencies.
There is also a mismatch between the government’s 2024 law and its constitution on the place of political parties. Neither the law’s three-party model nor the constitution’s 10% threshold could be put in place within the current timetable, even if the process were extended by another year. Local elections needed to produce three parties cannot be held in time. The threshold system would likewise encounter serious problems because of the large number of associations, many of which are not registered. Structural, political, and cultural barriers further limit the role parties can play in the coming election.
The government proposal also retains the 4.5 clan power-sharing arrangement. A single national constituency does not sit easily within that model and could produce a gerrymandered result. A party-based nationwide system would effectively allow party leaders to replace clan constituencies, giving them the power to appoint and remove MPs at will. That could deepen polarization and fuel grievances among communities. Lawmakers elected through such a system would answer to their party and party leader rather than the clan-constituency that holds the seat. Major urban centers, especially Mogadishu, would carry disproportionate weight, placing peripheral and rural areas at a disadvantage. The government’s plan would be more coherent only if it moved away from the 4.5 clan power-sharing model.
Several essential steps have also not been completed. The constitution remains disputed, with the government backing its own version and the opposition insisting on the 2012 constitution. A census has not been finalized, citizenship laws and political districts have not been established, and security and political constraints leave much of the country inaccessible. A vote based on one national constituency would therefore leave many communities out.
The opposition’s proposal, by comparison, is more workable, though it would likely require a technical extension of at least one year. Each seat would be contested in the city where the relevant sub-clan lives, while the seat itself would remain reserved for the clan that occupies it. Anyone wishing to vote for a particular seat could do so. In practice, this would not significantly alter clan dynamics, since most voters for a given seat would likely come from the same community. Somalia is a tribal society, and that reality must be recognized, even where some enlightened urban Somalis may choose to vote beyond their own communities.
Over the longer term, once the census is complete, political districts are created, and the country is secure, multi-district list proportional representation could be considered. At present, however, Somalia remains in a power-sharing phase, leaving First Past the Post based on existing clan-communal constituencies as the only viable option. Both sides accept that every seat should remain reserved for the community that currently owns it. The government’s case for a single national constituency and party-based proportional representation therefore does not hold up. Every communal constituency has one seat, and one person will be elected from each clan-constituency. On the election commission, the FGS, FMS, and opposition must all participate in a newly created, credible body capable of impartially managing the contest.
Possible Scenarios
Two outcomes appear possible. As happened in 2020, the government and opposition could set aside both plans and return to delegate-based indirect elections, which could be organized within months.
The alternative is an agreement around one of the two proposals. The government’s model could take a long time to implement and might face intense challenges over its outcome. Put simply, party leaders would choose legislators and hold them accountable, an arrangement that presents clear problems.
The opposition’s proposal is more feasible, but it too would require a technical extension of at least one year from now. In that event, a government of national unity and a roadmap would be required.
Ultimately, the government and opposition must read the writing on the wall and reach a political settlement. The stakes are too high.
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Afyare A. ElmiResearch Professor, City University of Mogadishu
