Andy Burnham faces an early electoral test in a London bye-election that could determine whether he can halt the Greens’ growing challenge to Labour among left-wing voters.
Voters in the inner-London constituency of Holborn and St Pancras go to the polls tomorrow, in the first major test of Mr Burnham’s ability to rebuild confidence in Labour after the party’s support among progressive voters fell sharply over the war in Gaza.
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The contest was triggered by the resignation of former Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The Greens are fielding their high-profile leader, Zack Polanski.
Zack Polanski’s leadership of the Greens has put Labour under pressure
Unlike the national political picture, in which Nigel Farage’s Reform UK presents a serious threat to Mr Burnham, the bye-election is shaping up primarily as a Labour-Green battle. Thousands of activists from both parties have spent recent weeks knocking on doors and campaigning across the constituency.
For the Prime Minister, a strong result would demonstrate that Labour can unite the left-of-centre vote and bolster his broader effort to confront a British right divided between Reform UK and the Conservatives.
The vote also gives Mr Burnham an opportunity to slow the momentum the Greens have gathered under Mr Polanski.
Even so, Labour’s candidate, Sagal Abdi-Wali, a local council leader, is widely expected to retain the seat for the governing party.
Green advances in parts of London contributed to Labour’s poor performance in May’s local elections. Those results helped trigger the chain of events that ended with Mr Starmer’s resignation on 20 July and his replacement by Mr Burnham.
Labour’s candidate in the Holborn and St. Pancras bye-election, Sagal Abdi-Wali is tipped to win the seat
Labour has since recovered in national opinion polls, while the Greens have encountered a series of setbacks.
At a party conference last weekend, Green members voted to classify Zionism as a form of racism, prompting criticism from British Jewish groups, Israel and some Green lawmakers.
Mr Polanski, who is Jewish, did not participate in the vote.
The Labour government, which has adopted a more critical stance towards Israel and prohibited imports from West Bank settlements, said the Greens had crossed a line.
Damian Lyons Lowe, the head of pollster Survation, said Holborn and St Pancras was among the Greens’ leading targets, while noting that governing parties rarely perform well in bye-elections.
But the Greens’ anti-Starmer message, which struck a chord in May, was now being tested by Mr Burnham.
“Burnham has made direct appeals to Green-minded voters in terms of some of the things they care about,” he told Reuters.
“The Burnham vibe check is very different to the Starmer-led Labour government, and that’s a problem for the Green Party.”
