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Iran and Israel long fought in the shadows — through intelligence operations, cyberattacks, covert sabotage and proxy warfare — calibrating pressure without crossing into direct war. That balance is faltering. The shadow conflict is tilting toward open confrontation, reshaping the Middle East’s security architecture and rippling through energy markets, shipping lanes and fragile regional politics from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. For decades, Tehran relied on partners such as Hezbollah in…

Djibouti’s Red Sea dilemma: How the Middle East war could reroute trade and test a strategic hub PARIS — Tuesday, March 10, 2026 — The war in the Middle East is no longer just a battlefield story. It is a shock rippling through global trade routes and energy markets, with outsized consequences for small, strategic economies. At the mouth of the Red Sea, Djibouti’s position at Bab el-Mandeb has long been an asset. In a protracted crisis, it could become a vulnerability. This is a classic exposure problem. Djibouti has built a…

Somalia’s latest constitutional amendments are being hailed by some lawmakers as proof that the country has become a “fully fledged state.” The symbolism is powerful. Yet the celebration risks outrunning the substance. The reforms mark real progress, but they do not, on their own, settle the foundational questions of federalism, inclusion and authority that have defined Somalia’s decade-long constitutional journey. Since 2012, Somalia has operated under a provisional constitution designed to accommodate fragile…

Somalia’s federalism debate is back in the spotlight after recent constitutional changes, but the fiercest political struggle is not about legal design. It is about who controls the state’s levers of influence. The contest runs through clan coalitions and elite networks that use government institutions as their arena. Until that deeper reality is confronted, arguments about centralization versus autonomy—whether power tilts toward Mogadishu or is diffused among member states—will misread how authority actually works. The…

Opinion: Ethiopia’s impunity test — why Abdi Iley’s return to public life imperils reconciliation In Ethiopia’s Somali Region and far beyond it, reconciliation is not a slogan but a test measured in the dignity afforded to victims. The reemergence of Abdi Mohamed Omar — widely known as Abdi Iley, the former Somali Region president — after a March 2024 pardon has turned that test into a crisis. Rights groups have long documented grave abuses by the region’s Liyu Police during his tenure, including torture, extrajudicial…

Opinion/Analysis: Somalia’s constitutional crossroads — process, not power, will decide the future Somalia’s Constitution is again at the center of national politics. A round of changes presented as a constitutional amendment has triggered sharp objections from federal member states and opposition figures, raising questions about legality, legitimacy and the balance of power in the federation. At stake is not only the letter of the 2012 Provisional Federal Constitution but public confidence in the institutions charged with…

Iran–Israel war redraws the Horn of Africa’s security map The joint United States–Israeli strikes on Iran last week, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior security officials, have vaulted the Middle East into a wider war with immediate spillover risks for the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. Iran has hit Israel and several Arab states that host U.S. military facilities — the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Jordan — while Hezbollah’s barrage from Lebanon…

‘Justice or rush to judgment?’ Somalia’s rare execution of a woman exposes deep cracks in the system GALKAYO, Somalia — The death of 14-year-old Saabirin Saylaan jolted Somalia long before the firing squad assembled for the woman convicted of killing her. It began on Nov. 12, when, according to police records, Hodan Mohamud Diiriye phoned her husband to say the teenager who had been living in their home was unconscious. They raced Saabirin to a hospital in Galkayo, where staff pronounced her dead and called the police. Less…

Analysis: Somalia’s 2026/2027 elections put eight political traditions to the test Somalia is approaching a defining electoral cycle in 2026/2027, when votes for several federal member states and the federal government will converge to shape the country’s political trajectory. Beyond the usual personalities and shifting alliances, the contests will surface a deeper struggle among eight identifiable political traditions. Understanding those traditions—and how they align or collide across two core axes of Somali politics—is…

Somalia’s Yeheb tree is vanishing. Turning Cordeauxia edulis into a domesticated crop could secure food, fodder and fragile drylands. In the sun-scored rangelands of Hiiraan, Galmudug, Mudug and the Somali-Ethiopian borderlands, a native lifeline grows almost nowhere else on Earth: the Yeheb tree (Cordeauxia edulis), known locally as Jicib. Long relied upon for its edible nuts, livestock fodder and soil-restoring roots, this wild leguminous shrub is quietly slipping away—its populations down as much as 70% under pressure…