Somalia prepares South West offensive as Ethiopia’s role remains unclear

MOGADISHU — Somalia’s federal administration appears to be tightening its grip on the South West State, moving toward a possible showdown after relations with its regional president, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed—known as Laftagareen—collapsed.

The dispute began as a political rupture late in Ramadan, but it has since hardened into a two-track strategy: federal pressure to force Laftagareen back into alignment with Villa Somalia, alongside fresh military movement. Officials close to the talks say attempts to restore cooperation with Laftagareen failed, leading the federal government to shift toward a more direct posture, combining political isolation with troop deployments.

Reports from the field indicate that federal forces have been sent to Buurhakaba, a town roughly 60 to 70 kilometers from Baidoa, the administrative hub of the South West State. The move is widely viewed as a notable escalation, effectively bringing federal troops within operational range of the region’s stronghold.

Security sources said two units were dispatched from Middle Shabelle, while an additional, incomplete unit was assembled in Mogadishu. The soldiers reportedly advanced along the Afgooye–Buurhakaba corridor and engaged Al-Shabaab fighters overnight near Yaqbiriweyne. No confirmed casualties have been reported.

On the other side, South West authorities have begun mobilizing significant defensive forces around Baidoa’s outskirts, suggesting preparations for a confrontation that could test the region’s security lines.

One major uncertainty remains the position of Ethiopian peacekeeping forces based in Baidoa. The federal government has previously sought Ethiopia’s backing for a Villa Somalia operation against Laftagareen inside Baidoa, but those efforts did not succeed. The latest diplomatic push culminated in a planned trip by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to Addis Ababa that was cancelled after he did not receive an official invitation from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Mediation attempts by the President of Djibouti also failed to produce an outcome. Ethiopia has not issued an official statement on the worsening tensions, even as analysts warn that fighting around Baidoa could give Al-Shabaab a chance to seize ground—an area Ethiopia treats as a front line against the militants.

Ethiopian forces have maintained an uninterrupted footprint in South West State since their initial deployment in 2011, extending their involvement to more than 14 years. During that period, they have established security positions in several strategic locations, including Baidoa, Hudur, Waajid, and other key areas where they have played a central role in counter-Al-Shabaab operations.

Diplomatic sources indicate that some of the federal troops taking part in the latest mobilization may be armed with weapons recently supplied by Egypt. Other reports suggest Egyptian military advisers are also present, contributing to planning and coordination.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, whose agenda has emphasized constitutional changes, faces criticism that he is trying to impose a disputed electoral approach on federal member states—including those that previously supported his administration.

Analysts say the current sequence of events could mark a turning point, one that threatens Somalia’s already fragile federal structure. A prior attempt by the federal government to assert control over Jubaland ended in failure when troops deployed to Ras Kamboni were driven back, with some retreating across the border into Kenya.

AXADLETM