On the brink of Euro 2024, Spain is set to lock horns with Croatia come Saturday in Berlin. The encounter promises fireworks, with Opta stats offering a deep dive into this tantalizing face-off.
Each Euro tournament sees a fiercely competitive ‘group of death.’ This year forms no exception; Group D sees a tussle between France, the Netherlands, and Austria, while Group B boasts titans Spain, Croatia, and Italy vying for supremacy.
The curtain raiser for Group B is poised as Spain squares off against Croatia. The epic clash is scheduled at Berlin’s Olympiastadion.
Spain holds a reputation, being the sole squad winning consecutive Euro titles in 2008 and 2012. Yet, their recent big-ticket performances have only seen them win two knockout rounds across five major outings post their last victory.
Luis de la Fuente steered Spain to clinch the 2022-23 Nations League, edging Croatia via penalties. Moreover, Spain ousted Croatia in a thriller during Euro 2020, securing an 8-goal bonanza in the last 16.
Despite their past victories, underestimating Croatia, fresh from their World Cup 2022 third-place victory, could prove costly for Spain. Decisions on Saturday could largely dictate outcomes in this tight group.
The Opta forecast tips Spain as frontrunners. However, outcome predictions remain shaky with Spain holding only a 50% win chance. Croatia claims a 24% win probability, and 26% of games might end in draws, potentially benefiting Italy.
This isn’t the first rodeo for Spain and Croatia; they mark their fourth consecutive Euros showdown. Their historic first occurred between Spain and Italy from 2008 to 2020, with another meeting slated on June 20 in Gelsenkirchen.
Spain’s record against Croatia includes two wins, a defeat, and the prospect of a riveting match given their recent high-scoring encounters.
Spain is also pitched by the supercomputer as Group B’s top contender, with La Roja projected at 47.3%, Croatia at 18%, and Italy at 29%.
Spain dazzles with their possession-heavy approach, with Gavi and Pedri marked as stars. Yet, this strategy hasn’t been foolproof in securing victories, notably seen at Euro 2020 and the last World Cup. Despite this, they maintain a robust possession record, last outplayed in 2008 against Germany.
Spain’s objective is clear: consolidate their tactical build-up with dynamic flanks anchored by Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams.
Croatia, on the opposite end, blends control with cunning. Veterans like Luka Modric and Marcelo Brozovic orchestrate their gameplay. Known for their tactical nous, Croatia excels in maintaining possession, disrupting plays, and converting turnovers into goals.
As for individuals under the spotlight:
Spain banks on Alvaro Morata. Despite a spotty track record with missed chances at pivotal moments, his recent form sees him as a critical asset.
Croatian maestro Luka Modric remains indispensable. Even with moderated playtime at Real Madrid, he continues to command the field, making him indispensable for Croatia.
In essence, both teams gear up, knowing the depth and quality each brings to the field, setting the stage for one of the most anticipated matches of the group stages.
