UN to Tackle Somalia’s Political Overhaul, Ethiopian Strains, and Emerging Security Challenges
Mogadishu (AX) — On Monday, the United Nations Security Council will put Somalia’s political chaos and rising security perils under the microscope with an open briefing followed by discreet consultations. James Swan, the Acting Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Somalia, and Mohamed El-Amine Souef, the AU Commission Chairperson’s Special Representative, will helm the meeting.
Making his first appearance since reclaiming his duty in May, Swan will lay down an array of updates about Somalia’s political, economic, and security landscape derived from the Secretary-General’s report dated June 3. High on the agenda are the new constitutional tweaks, burgeoning friction with Ethiopia, and the unrelenting menace of Al-Shabaab.
Back on March 30, Somalia’s Federal Parliament green-lighted major amendments to the provisional constitution. These reforms introduce a universal suffrage electoral system while moving to direct presidential polls, ditching the age-old clan-based voting approach. Yet, such shifts have stirred the pot. The semi-autonomous region of Northeastern State declared on March 31 its intent to withdraw from recognizing the federal government and ceased participation in the National Consultative Council meetings.
Another heavyweight topic will be Somalia’s request to pull the plug on UNSOM by October’s end. In a communiqué dispatched to Council members in May, Somalia urged for a quick wrap-up of the procedure. The Council nudged the Secretary-General to liaise with the Somali authorities on laying down the blueprints and timelines for this transition, with an update expected by August’s close.
Layering the political complexity are the heated relations with Ethiopia. Post a memorandum signed on January 1 between Ethiopia and North Western of Somalia, Somalia booted Ethiopia’s Ambassador in Mogadishu on April 4 and shut Ethiopian consulates in Garowe and Hargeisa. Demands by Somalia’s National Security Advisor for Ethiopian troops to exit by December, aligning with ATMIS’s drawdown, have faced pushback from Somalia’s own Jubaland and Southwest regions, dependent on Ethiopian forces for maintaining order.
The Council will also delve into the persistent havoc wreaked by Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaida affiliate. The Secretary-General’s dossier understated a gnarly rise in civilian casualties due to Al-Shabaab’s sinister use of IEDs. Between January 25 and May 25, UNSOM tallied 340 civilian casualties, 146 being fatalities, revealing a chilling 104 percent surge from prior periods.
Souef is anticipated to shed light on ATMIS’ aptitude in buttressing Somali forces against Al-Shabaab and to discuss the strides in ATMIS’ phasing out. He will likely touch upon post-ATMIS arrangements to prevent any security void.
The African Union Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) not long ago backed the creation of a fresh AU-led, UN-sanctioned mission to back Somalia’s federal government in the post-ATMIS era. This came off the heels of a technical review from the AU Peace Support Operations Division. The AUPSC has asked the AU Commission to formulate financing avenues for the nascent mission and lay out a concept of operations by the end of July.
As the Council sits on Monday, deliberations will likely fixate on the extension of ATMIS’ mandate, poised to lapse on June 30. The UK, which holds the pen on Somalia, has yet to roll out a draft resolution on the matter.
