Brazil is heading for a presidential run-off after Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of far-right former leader Jair Bolsonaro, narrowly finished ahead of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in a result that overturned expectations.
Despite opinion polls consistently placing Mr Lula in front, Flavio Bolsonaro secured about 47% of the vote, compared with roughly 45% for the incumbent.
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A Bolsonaro victory in the 25 October run-off would make Brazil the latest Latin American country to move rightward, reinforcing a regional trend embraced by US President Donald Trump.
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva addresses supporters in Sao Paulo
The right also posted a series of major gains in parliament, dealing another blow to Mr Lula as the 80-year-old seeks a fourth term and a chance to further shape his political legacy.
Mr Lula cast the contest as a struggle between democracy and “barbarism”, arguing that Brazil’s sovereignty was under threat from pressure exerted by the United States.
Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, had maintained a comparatively modest national profile before his jailed father threw his support behind him. Until recently, he had not publicly signalled plans to seek the presidency.
“I am truly happy with the result”, Mr Bolsonaro said after the vote was counted, celebrating what he called the “very real possibility” of winning the run-off.
Mr Lula described his failure to secure a first-round victory as “unexpected”, but promised to mount a stronger campaign over the next three weeks.
“I admit I was convinced I would win in the first round. The game is about to start. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people,” the 80-year-old said. “I’m very good at knockout stages.”
Bolsonaro dynasty
During the campaign, it emerged that Flavio Bolsonaro was being investigated over corruption allegations involving the financing of the biopic “Dark Horse”, which focuses on his father.
The film was financed by jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is himself under investigation in connection with a financial scandal.
For many voters, however, the controversy did little to shift their political loyalties.
“Things are truly terrible. As far as I’m concerned, the left just doesn’t work anymore,” said tech worker Joao Batista, 36. He added that he was frustrated by the “horrible” cost of everyday goods.
Flavio Bolsonaro speaks to supporters in Brasilia
The investigation prompted an unusual public dispute in the Supreme Court, a confrontation that experts said had further weakened Mr Lula’s campaign.
Other voters appeared less inspired than resigned by the familiar choice before them.
Oscarina de Oliveira, a 62-year-old caregiver, said she had intended to vote for Mr Lula, as she always had. But “when I got there, I switched to Bolsonaro. Just to see what happens, to see if anything changes.”
The election represented a political revival for the Bolsonaro family after Jair Bolsonaro lost his re-election bid in 2022, an outcome followed by violent riots in the capital and his conviction last year for attempting a coup.
Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro and Carlos Bolsonaro, another of Jair Bolsonaro’s sons, both won seats in the Senate.
Jair Bolsonaro’s youngest son, Jair Renan, 28, was elected as a federal politician.
Trump watches on
Mr Trump said he was following the election “very closely”, although he stopped short of endorsing Flavio Bolsonaro.
The US president has used tariffs and sanctions to exert pressure on Brasilia, citing concerns that range from the prosecution of his ally Jair Bolsonaro to claims of unfair trade practices.
Mr Lula repeatedly urged him not to “meddle” in Brazil’s election.
He also insisted that Brazil would keep control of the development of its enormous rare-earth reserves, resources that have drawn attention from Washington and other foreign powers.
Some supporters of Mr Lula followed the results in Cinelandia square in downtown Rio de Janeiro
“I support Lula because he stands up for the poor. Flavio will sell our Brazil off to foreigners,” said Victor Jorge Martins, a 25-year-old event planner.
Flavio Bolsonaro, meanwhile, has presented Brazil as a “solution” that could help reduce US reliance on China for critical minerals.
Climate change absent
Known for social welfare programmes credited with lifting millions from poverty, Mr Lula returned to power in the 2022 election after a corruption conviction that was later annulled on procedural grounds.
During his third term, inflation and unemployment fell, but the rising cost of living remains a central concern for voters.
Mr Lula has also overseen a sharp reduction in deforestation across the Amazon, even as his government has supported oil exploration.
Climate change, however, barely featured in the campaign despite the increasing frequency of extreme weather events in Brazil.
“It is important to elect a candidate who defends our territory, who defends nature,” said Tainara da Costa Cruz, 22, who lives on the banks of the Rio Negro in Amazonas state and voted for Mr Lula.
