MOGADISHU, 23 September 2026 – Somalia is bracing for a dangerous convergence of hunger, child malnutrition and expected El Niño-driven floods, with millions already struggling to find enough food and conditions forecast to deteriorate sharply from October to December 2026, the Federal Government of Somalia and the United Nations (UN) warned today.
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Flood projections and severe funding gaps threaten to deepen Somalia’s food emergency, the Federal Government of Somalia and the United Nations said, warning that children are especially at risk of being pushed further into acute malnutrition and extreme food insecurity.
The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)* analysis estimates that 5.4 million people will face crisis levels of hunger or worse between October and December 2026. That figure includes 1.5 million people expected to endure emergency levels of hunger or worse. The IPC analysis also projects that 1.92 million children under the age of five will need treatment for acute malnutrition between July 2026 and June 2027, among them 433,000 children suffering from severe acute malnutrition – the most lethal form. Rural communities account for nearly 62 per cent of the country’s malnutrition burden, while internally displaced people in Belet Weyne and some displacement sites in Baidoa are expected to reach Extremely Critical levels (IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5) as anticipated flooding cuts off access to essential services.
The assessment found that acute malnutrition has eased in Burhakaba district in Bay region, which was considered at risk of famine in April. The improvement followed the Gu rains and an expanded humanitarian response in the district. The latest analysis, however, points to a famine risk in Baidoa, also in Bay region, where internally displaced people (IDPs) face both catastrophic hunger risks and extremely critical malnutrition classifications. Because the famine risk assessment for Baidoa IDPs relied on data gathered in April 2026, a follow-up assessment is scheduled for October 2026 to collect updated evidence and verify the level of risk.
“The humanitarian crisis in Somalia remains dire and millions of people are at risk due to these high levels of hunger and malnutrition,” said George Conway, Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia. “The projected threat of El Niño-related flooding will further undermine already fragile livelihoods, displace vulnerable communities and increase the risk of disease. We call for urgent action and additional resources to protect lives, strengthen preparedness and prevent this crisis from deteriorating further.”
The danger is expected to peak between October and December 2026, when heavy El Niño-related rains are forecast to bring flooding that will hit rural riverine and agropastoral communities hardest. Floodwaters could destroy crops and livestock, sever families from markets and income, and force fresh displacement. The Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SODMA) estimates that 2.5 to 3.5 million people could be exposed to flooding, with 1 million likely to be displaced from farming and grazing areas, adding to the number of people already facing acute hunger.
“We are deeply concerned by the worsening food insecurity and malnutrition situation, particularly as we prepare for the potential impacts of El Niño,” said Mohamuud Moallim Abdullahi, Commissioner, Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SODMA). “The Government is working closely with humanitarian partners and state authorities to address the multiple crises that Somalia is facing. We urge all partners and donors to support these efforts so that we can act early, protect lives and livelihoods, and reduce human suffering.”
The Federal Government of Somalia and the UN are urging immediate steps to safeguard and fund continued general food and cash assistance, along with treatment for severe and moderate acute malnutrition. They are also calling for food, emergency livelihood and nutrition supplies to be pre-positioned, and for cash readiness to be strengthened in rural and flood-prone areas before road access is restricted in October. Authorities and aid agencies say integrated food security, nutrition, health, water and sanitation outreach, as well as screening for both rural host communities and IDPs, must be expanded in the highest-risk districts. With resources limited, sustained investment in seasonal food security, nutrition and mortality assessments and monitoring is urgently needed to guide prioritization and enable timely response. Funding decisions in the coming weeks will determine whether food and treatment are in place when conditions worsen in October — and whether aid can still reach communities after roads are cut.
Agropastoral communities, already under strain from repeated poor seasons including the below-average 2026 Gu rains, are among the hardest hit nationwide. Rural areas make up two thirds of the malnutrition burden. Flooding linked to El Niño during the Deyr season, from October to December, is expected to intensify existing vulnerabilities, disrupt food production and drive more displacement, food insecurity and malnutrition.
“Families already facing hunger cannot afford to lose their harvests or livestock to floods,” said Etienne Peterschmitt, FAO Representative in Somalia. “Urgent funding is needed to turn early warnings into action, to save lives, protect livelihoods, and support early recovery for rural populations as this crisis deepens.”
“Millions across Somalia are struggling to recover from drought, insecurity and high food costs, with many families having exhausted the resources they relied on,” said Hameed Nuru, WFP Representative and Country Director in Somalia. “As flooding threatens to bring yet another shock, WFP is preparing for the months ahead, delivering assistance to communities most in need, and supporting early action to protect lives and livelihoods. The support we receive now will determine how many families we can support before the crisis deepens.”
“Between 2021 and 2025, UNICEF, together with the Government of Somalia and partners, supported more than 2.25 million admissions of children with severe acute malnutrition. Timely access to treatment has saved lives and given children the opportunity to recover and thrive,” said Sandra Lattouf, UNICEF Representative in Somalia. “Today, these critical services are under increasing pressure due to funding shortages. Urgent support is needed to help Somali authorities and partners maintain treatment services through the end of the year and ensure that essential nutrition supplies reach the children and communities that need them most before access routes become more constrained.
The UN in Somalia said it is expanding integrated nutrition, health, water and sanitation, and food security support in the districts facing the greatest risk, with priority going to areas classified at Phase 4 and above and to displacement settlements in Beledweyne and Baidoa.#####
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