Russia has begun voting in a parliamentary election that is expected to leave the Kremlin’s main political vehicle with its commanding hold over the lower house.
But beneath the appearance of continuity, four-and-a-half years of full-scale war with Ukraine have left Russia’s political and economic landscape deeply strained.
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Waves of Ukrainian drones have caused extensive damage to Russian oil refineries and key logistical sites.
For a public that once experienced the war as something far away, the fighting is now a source of growing unease.
Even so, authorities have tightened their grip on the country’s first wartime election for the lower chamber since the full-scale invasion in 2022.
Before three days of voting began on Friday in Russia’s Far East, the Kremlin moved to suppress even limited signs of opposition. The sole party willing to openly criticise the war was removed from the ballot, while several anti-war politicians have been jailed or driven into exile.
The election also marks the first time residents of four Ukrainian regions that Moscow illegally annexed after the invasion have been included in the vote. Ukraine has condemned the balloting as illegal.
With the outcome effectively settled and no immediate challenge to Mr Putin’s political dominance, analysts say the Kremlin views the election as a vehicle for rallying support behind the war and presenting its actions as legitimate.
“Your choice and resolve will once again demonstrate that millions of people stand behind our fighters, that we are a united people, bound by shared values, historical memory, and love for the Motherland,” Mr Putin said in an address before the vote.
Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign over the summer brought the war into the daily lives of millions of Russians.
The strikes deepened the country’s economic troubles, with growth sliding into stagnation after an initial surge powered by huge military outlays. To contain the widening budget deficit, the government raised taxes and borrowed more inside Russia.
Attacks on Russian oil refineries triggered a serious fuel crisis that reached its height in June, briefly eased and then resurfaced in August.
The economy also absorbed a series of strikes on warehouses operated by online retailers Wildberries and Ozon. Hundreds of thousands of individual sellers lost stock, sending a shock through the marketplace.
The combined pressure weighed on public sentiment. Polls showed Mr Putin’s approval rating falling, although it remained high: the independent Levada Centre recorded 76% in August, compared with 87% in September 2025.
Discontent also surfaced among some of Russia’s senior economic and political figures.
Andrei Klepach, chief economist at the state-owned VEB.RF bank, cautioned that the country could face internal upheaval.
“We won’t win the competition in this war of attrition,” he said at a seminar. “Our costs are mounting. I’m almost sure that we will come to face a social crisis.”
Mr Klepach was dismissed the day after his remarks were published.
Mr Putin has acknowledged that the attacks caused serious damage but said the Russian economy remains capable of absorbing the impact. He accused Ukraine of opening a “Pandora’s box” that would invite a massive response.
Russia stepped up missile attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, while deploying new jet-powered drones as Ukraine struggled with shortages of defensive interceptors. Moscow also sharply increased its strikes on Black Sea ports, disrupting Ukrainian grain and other agricultural exports, a crucial source of revenue.
As the escalation continued, speculation grew that the Kremlin could be considering another large-scale mobilisation.
The partial mobilisation of 300,000 reservists in 2022 drove hundreds of thousands of Russians abroad and damaged domestic stability.
Since then, the Kremlin has depended on volunteers, offering relatively generous wages and other incentives. Military experts have warned, however, that recruitment has slowed even as battlefield casualties remain extremely high.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said the Kremlin is weighing a mobilisation after the election, a possibility Mr Putin dismissed as “nonsense”.
During a Kremlin meeting with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on 5 September, followed by a call with President Donald Trump, Mr Putin said Russia had the upper hand on the battlefield. His comments suggested he intends to maintain maximalist demands in any peace agreement.
In July, the Central Election Commission approved 11 parties for the parliamentary contest, among them Yabloko, the only party to speak openly against the war.
Weeks later, however, the Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the ballot after an appeal by the nationalist Motherland party, which argued that the liberal party’s anti-war position amounted to seeking the violation of Russia’s territorial integrity.
Kremlin-watchers viewed the decision as evidence of a dispute within the authorities. Some officials appeared to favour preserving a limited appearance of competition to encourage turnout, while others feared that Yabloko could turn the election into a platform for criticism of the war and a source of political instability.
“The risks that the campaign would turn into a struggle for and against peace – that is, a dispute about the war – were quite high, and this clearly was not part of the plan,” said Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre.
Maxim Kruglov, Yabloko’s deputy chairman and a former member of Moscow’s city council, was convicted in June of spreading false information about the military and sentenced to seven years in prison.
Last month, a court in the Pskov region convicted Lev Shlosberg, another Yabloko member, of speaking out against the war and sentenced him to more than 11 years.
The Duma has 450 seats, with half allocated through approved party lists and the rest won in single-constituency races. Yabloko was barred from taking part in the party-list vote.
Authorities then systematically blocked individual Yabloko candidates from standing in most single-constituency contests for the Duma and regional legislatures.
Liberal politician and war critic Boris Nadezhdin, who sought to challenge Mr Putin in the 2024 presidential election, left Russia last month. He feared arrest after being labelled a “foreign agent” and prohibited from running for office.
United Russia, which holds more than two-thirds of the Duma’s seats, is expected to preserve its dominance despite mounting public fatigue over the war and a deteriorating economy. Some Russian reports suggest the Kremlin has modestly reduced its target for the party, but still expects it to retain full control of parliament.
“United Russia may be allowed to slip a little – to bring its actual sort of declared results more in line with probably its real results,” said analyst Mark Galeotti, head of the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, adding that the Kremlin will ensure it “is still absolutely dominant within the Duma”.
The other parties in the “systemic opposition” – the Communist Party, the Liberal-Democratic Party and A Just Russia Party, all of which follow Mr Putin’s political line and strongly back the war – are expected to remain represented in parliament.
Ukraine’s attacks have generated widespread anxiety, but they could also intensify calls for a tougher response against Kyiv, “as long as they don’t have to be involved in it”, Mr Galeotti said in a podcast.
Chris Weafer, chief executive of Macro-Advisory Ltd, said the strikes had weakened public morale but posed no immediate danger to the Kremlin’s political control.
“There has been a ‘rally around the flag’ anyway since the start of conflict and the opinion polls consistently show the very high level of support,” he said.
Although the result is predetermined, Mr Weafer said, “the public narrative and particularly the turnout” matter to the Kremlin as it seeks to claim broad public backing for its actions.
