Mogadishu (AX) — In the home stretch before the African Union forces exit, global partners are scrambling to lock down plans for a fresh strategy in Somalia. The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is on deck to succeed ATMIS come January 2025. It’s a linchpin effort aimed at resisting the relentless Al-Shabaab insurgency threatening Somalia’s fragile peace.
The African Union’s Peace and Security Council has given two thumbs up to AUSSOM’s strategic playbook, known as CONOPs. This mission’s blueprint is to boost Somalia’s homegrown security forces while safeguarding AU personnel. The emphasis? Train and equip local troops to fly solo in maintaining peace. Yet, this gambit needs the backing of international pockets to truly take off.
A pow-wow in Washington, D.C., brought together voices from the Somalia Quint Group—namely the U.S., Qatar, Turkey, the UAE, and the UK. They sounded the alarm on the need for cash and logistical backing for AUSSOM. As one seasoned U.S. official put it, “Finalizing a post-ATMIS force is imperative.” Failure to do so spells danger as it might open a gaping security void for Al-Shabaab to exploit.
Intelligence surfaced in their talks, revealing Al-Shabaab has managed to snag advanced arms, including drones and missiles, from external suppliers.
Al-Shabaab’s escalating violence underscores their notorious position as one of Africa’s most formidable insurgencies. August 2 etched a grim chapter with a brazen suicide attack and mass shooting at Mogadishu’s Lido Beach, claiming 37 innocent lives. In response, the Somali government, backed by international allies, is dialing up military actions against them, though the Al-Shabaab menace remains a sturdy hurdle.
“Al-Shabaab’s sly moves pinpoint the necessity for sustained foreign support,” voiced Mohamed el-Amine Souef, the African Union’s point man for Somalia, in a briefing to the UN Security Council in New York.
Despite thumbs-up from international allies, the January deadline looms large. The Quint group hammered home that funding for AUSSOM is critical to steering clear of a security vacuum. A UK envoy warned, “The necessity for funding AUSSOM is paramount to stave off chaotic scenarios like those elsewhere. Sufficient funding undergirds Somalia’s ongoing strides,” he said.
In the grand chessboard of regional power plays, Somalia is caught in shifting alliances. It’s inked a defense pact with Egypt, signaling a seismic geopolitical shake-up. Cairo’s pledge of 5,000 troops to bolster Somalia’s defenses under AUSSOM spells its intention to ramp up influence in the Horn of Africa. This move seeks to clip Ethiopia’s wings after its contentious naval base agreement in North Western State of Somalia. Somalia has blasted this as a breach of sovereignty, jacking up regional tensions.
James Swan, pinch-hitting as the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative, flagged during a Thursday update that as ATMIS hands over the reins, generating enough force is still a mountain to climb. Six of the designated bases have been handed off to Somali control, but keeping a lid on long-term security demands sustained global backing.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia expressed faith in the capabilities of their security forces during this transition but stressed that international aid is a must.
The Quint acknowledgment that Somalia is making headway politically, with Somali Parliament tweaking four chapters of the Provisional Constitution in March 2024. The country is plowing ahead with plans for first-time universal suffrage elections, a notable stride toward stability and enduring democratic institutions.
Yet, these political wins are skating on thin ice. Swan warned the UN Council that insecure conditions could upend these gains. “Political advances waltz hand-in-hand with security,” he noted. “No security, no democracy.”
After all was said and done in Washington, the Quint partners issued a unified statement, doubling down on honoring Somalia’s territorial integrity and unity.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
