U.N. experts warn al-Shabab remains top threat in Somalia and Kenya as Security Council extends AU mission to 2026
Al-Shabab remains the greatest immediate threat to peace and stability in Somalia and the wider region, especially Kenya, U.N. experts said in a report released Wednesday, warning that the group’s operational capacity and influence remain largely undiminished.
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Despite ongoing operations by Somali and international forces, the al-Qaida-linked group continues to execute complex, asymmetric attacks across Somalia, the panel said. The threat extends to the capital, Mogadishu, where al-Shabab attempted to assassinate the president on March 18.
The experts emphasized that the danger is not confined to bombings and raids. Al-Shabab’s sophisticated extortion networks, forced recruitment, and effective propaganda machinery help sustain its reach and resilience, they said.
Underscoring international concern, the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday voted unanimously to extend authorization for the African Union’s support and stabilization force in Somalia through Dec. 31, 2026. The force currently includes 11,826 uniformed personnel, among them 680 police officers.
Al-Shabab continues to pose a significant cross-border threat to Kenya, the panel said, citing tactics ranging from improvised explosive devices targeting security personnel to infrastructure attacks, kidnappings, home raids, and livestock theft. This year, the group averaged about six attacks a month in Kenya, mostly in Mandera and Lamu counties along the Somali border, according to the report.
The group’s strategic objective remains unchanged: to remove Somalia’s federal government, expel foreign forces, and establish a “Greater Somalia” uniting ethnic Somalis across East Africa under strict Islamic rule, the experts said.
The panel also examined Islamic State operations in Somalia, reporting a recruitment pipeline that draws fighters from around the world, with the majority originating in East Africa. By the end of 2024, ISIL-Somalia had more than 1,000 fighters, at least 60% of whom were foreign, the report said.
Although smaller than al-Shabab in manpower and resources, ISIL-Somalia’s expansion represents a significant threat to peace and security in Somalia and the broader region, the experts concluded.
The Council’s extension of the African Union mission signals sustained international backing for Somalia’s security transition and stabilization efforts. But the experts’ assessment highlights the scale of the challenge ahead: insurgent groups able to regenerate, adapt, and project force beyond Somalia’s borders, even as military pressure intensifies.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
