A Viable Electoral Plan for Somalia’s 2026/2027 National Elections

Somalia’s 2026/2027 elections: a state-saving blueprint, not a power struggle

Somalia is approaching a constitutional cliff with the 2026/2027 electoral cycle. There is no agreed framework, no final roadmap and little time before current mandates reach their limits. The risk is not only delay, but paralysis: a vacuum that invites fragmentation, corrodes institutions and erodes public trust. The imperative now is to treat the coming vote as a state-saving exercise — designed to preserve legitimacy, not simply to deliver winners and losers.

The lesson from a quarter-century of Somali state-building is clear. Incremental, nationally owned arrangements succeed when they curb elite capture, draw authority from society and insulate the process from transactional politics. That is why a modernized return to the 2012 electoral model — adapted to present-day realities — offers the most realistic path forward.

How Somalia got here

Somalia’s elections have been unlike those in most democracies — iterative, negotiated and shaped by conflict dynamics. Since 2000, each cycle has layered new institutions atop fragile consensus.

The 2000 Carta process in Djibouti revived Somali statehood, establishing a transitional government and a 245-member parliament chosen under the 4.5 clan-based power-sharing formula. Four years later, the Eldoret–Mbagathi process produced a 275-member parliament and a federal charter, but participation remained indirect and elite-driven.

The 2008/2009 transition expanded parliament to 550 members to integrate opposition factions, attempting to widen inclusion. The breakthrough came in 2012: a permanent federal government was seated under a provisional constitution, a 275-member parliament was selected inside Somalia and traditional elders played a decisive role. While still indirect, corruption and executive interference were comparatively limited, and public confidence improved.

In 2016/2017, Somalia added an Upper House representing Federal Member States (FMS) — a structural advance overshadowed by the normalization of vote-buying and seat trafficking. The 2021/2022 cycle deepened that trend, with prolonged brinkmanship and outsized FMS control yielding a parliament shaped by transactional bargaining rather than competence or accountability.

Why 2026/2027 is different

Somalia’s pattern of holding elections roughly every four years is at risk amid a vacuum of consensus. A rapid jump to one-person, one-vote is not feasible under current security, institutional and political conditions. Repeating the 2016/2021 frameworks would only entrench corruption, extend elite capture and invite confrontation between the center and federal member states. The country needs an approach anchored in Somali realities that restores public trust while avoiding institutional breakdown.

A pragmatic model: revive and modernize 2012

The 2012 process worked better than most because it placed decisive authority in socially legitimate hands and limited executive manipulation. Updating that approach for today should rest on three pillars: independence, balance and integrity.

• Independence: Establish a genuinely autonomous National Electoral Commission (NEC) with a transparent selection process, fixed terms and clear protection from executive and FMS pressure.
• Balance: Recalibrate the role of FMS leaders to prevent seat-gating and undue influence, while preserving a meaningful consultative role that reflects federal reality.
• Integrity: Reassert the central role of traditional elders and community representatives in nominating credible candidates, with enforceable vetting standards and public verification.

Core safeguards to rebuild trust

• Transparent seat allocation and public registries of candidates, selectors and final tallies to deter manipulation.
• Clear conflict-of-interest rules for federal and FMS officials, with sanctions for interference.
• Independent complaints and dispute-resolution mechanisms with binding timelines.
• Codes of conduct for elders, candidates and security services, published in advance and enforced uniformly.
• Targeted anti-corruption controls, including open financial disclosures and criminal penalties for vote-buying.

Returning authority to society

Restoring the social legitimacy of parliament requires re-centering the role of communities. Traditional elders and civic leaders should lead the gatekeeping of parliamentary selections, guided by public criteria that prioritize competence, integrity and national vision. Civil society — including women’s groups, youth networks, business associations and scholars — should be embedded in oversight and verification, not relegated to the sidelines.

This is not a call to romanticize the past. It is a pragmatic response to a present in which neither rushed universal suffrage nor the recent elite-managed formulas can deliver a credible outcome. Somalia needs a near-term mechanism that the public recognizes as fair enough to stabilize the state and a medium-term path that builds toward direct elections.

What to avoid — and why

• All-at-once direct voting without preconditions. Without minimum security, census data, voter rolls and dispute systems, a rushed universal suffrage vote could trigger more conflict than legitimacy.
• Recycling 2016/2021 structures. Systems that relied on monetized influence and opaque bargaining are not merely flawed; they are disqualifying in the current crisis.
• Open-ended extensions. Mandate drift without a credible, time-bound plan risks fragmenting authority and fueling zero-sum politics.

A time-bound, actionable roadmap

1. Form the NEC with cross-verified nominations from the federal executive, parliament, the judiciary, traditional elders and civil society, ensuring no single bloc can dominate.
2. Publish the rules of the game: seat allocation, selection procedures, complaint timelines, codes of conduct and sanctions.
3. Constitute elders’ councils in each constituency with public criteria for membership, including integrity checks and gender inclusion targets.
4. Launch candidate vetting and public disclosure, with space for community objections and independent review.
5. Secure a coordinated security plan with clear command and nonpartisan rules of engagement to protect selectors, candidates and observers.
6. Hold selections under NEC supervision with real-time transparency, followed by a fixed window for complaints and adjudication.
7. Seat parliament and elect leadership; then legislate medium-term reforms for a credible move to universal suffrage, including census groundwork, civil registry, party law and campaign finance rules.

Measuring success the right way

Somalia does not need a performative election. It needs a stabilizing one that prevents institutional rupture and produces a parliament capable of governance. Success should be measured not by turnout figures or celebratory optics, but by reduced interference, transparent processes, fewer credible complaints and a legislature that commands broader public confidence.

The bottom line

Reverting to the recent past would invite a crisis. Leaping ahead without preparation would risk an even greater one. A modernized 2012 model — independent, balanced and integrity-driven — offers a Somali-led compromise that can avert paralysis, limit elite capture and preserve the state through the 2026/2027 cycle. If authority is returned to society and rules are enforced without fear or favor, Somalia can emerge from this moment not only intact, but better positioned to build the foundations for direct democracy.

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.