Mohamud’s Visit to Kismayo: A Fragile Gesture Toward Reconciliation
KISMAYO, Somalia — When Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud travels to Kismayo this weekend for talks with Jubaland’s leader Ahmed “Madobe” Mohamed, he will be stepping into a political landscape that has been scarred by years of public acrimony, private deals and military showdowns. The trip — brokered quietly by Nairobi and welcomed, cautiously, by regional capitals — is less a triumph than a test of whether local rivals can move from brinkmanship to compromise ahead of a critical national transition.
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The anatomy of a standoff
Jubaland, the semi-autonomous administration in Somalia’s far south, commands a strategic swath of coastline and oversees Kismayo, a port city whose revenue and logistics matter to Mogadishu, neighboring Kenya and international actors. Tensions between the federal government and Jubaland escalated after Madobe’s contested re-election in 2019, which Mogadishu declared unconstitutional. Since then the relationship has pitched from legal challenges into accusations of collusion with Islamist militants, an arrest warrant for Madobe, and even a heavy-handed federal operation in the Ras Kamboni area that ended with forces withdrawing across the border into Kenya.
Flights into Kismayo were later curtailed by an air blockade imposed by Mogadishu, severing direct links that Kenya has long used for business and mediation. The friction has unfolded against the persistent backdrop of al-Shabaab insurgency, which both sides invoke as a justification for security postures and for seeking outside support.
Kenya’s role: mediator, security guarantor, stakeholder
Kenya has emerged as the chief broker, quietly arranging Sunday’s meeting and deploying senior intelligence figures to shepherd discussions. Nooradin Mohamed Haji, Kenya’s intelligence chief, has been a visible presence in months of behind-the-scenes diplomacy; Kenyan troops serving under the African Union mission are also on the ground in Kismayo to provide security during the visit.
“Kenya’s interest is both practical and strategic,” said a Nairobi-based diplomat who asked not to be named. “A stable Jubaland reduces cross-border insecurity, protects trade routes, and makes it easier for Nairobi to manage refugee flows and its own domestic politics.”
That mixture of motives — security, economics and regional influence — is typical of East African diplomacy. It can smooth talks in the short term, but it also raises questions about external actors’ long-term appetite for being guarantors of fragile agreements.
Inside Kismayo: traders, elders and the human stakes
On the ground in Kismayo, people’s priorities are less constitutional than practical. Fishermen and traders talk about markets and fuel, elders about land and clan balance, and young men about the few jobs on offer. “We have seen leaders fight and the city pay the price,” said Hassan Yusuf, a boat owner unloading fish near the port. “If this meeting means less soldiers and more business, then people will welcome it.”
Local civil society leaders caution that reconciliation at the level of state institutions must also trickle down to clan-based grievances and economic management. “Power-sharing deals signed in hotels mean little if the young men who join militias feel left out of the economy,” said a Jubaland activist who asked not to be named for safety reasons.
Political chess and the election calendar
The talks come at a moment of high political pressure: the federal government and a new opposition bloc that includes Madobe are maneuvering for advantage during Somalia’s impending transition period. A recent Nairobi summit — which brought Madobe together with Puntland State’s leader and opposition figures — signaled a realignment that Mogadishu cannot ignore. For President Mohamud, the Kismayo visit is a litmus test: can he present himself as a reconciler without alienating allies at home who have favored a harder line?
Observers say the stakes go beyond personalities. Somalia’s federal architecture remains a work in progress, and the handling of Jubaland will shape perceptions of whether the system can accommodate strong regional administrations or whether it will be dominated by Mogadishu.
Al-Shabaab: the persistent spoiler
Both the federal government and Jubaland invoke the threat of al-Shabaab to justify security measures and external partnerships. International donors and regional militaries say the militant group remains a potent danger — capable of exploiting political divides to regain influence. A fragile diplomatic thaw, therefore, must be paired with practical security cooperation that does not simply paper over deeper governance disputes.
What success would look like — and what might follow
At its most modest, a successful visit would produce a framework for confidence-building measures: reopening direct flights, commitments to joint security operations against al-Shabaab, and a mechanism to handle disputes over appointments and revenue. More ambitiously, it could set the stage for a political compact ahead of national elections that stabilizes Somalia’s fractious federalism.
Yet even a signed communique will not guarantee peace. Past ceasefires and accords in Somalia have often unraveled under the pressure of local rivalries and weak institutions. That is why observers say any durable deal must include economic incentives for reconciliation — tangible benefits for Kismayo’s residents — and clear timelines for implementation backed by impartial monitoring.
As leaders meet in the port city, regional capitals will be watching — not just Nairobi and Addis Ababa, but donors and international bodies concerned with the long arc of Somalia’s recovery. The question for them, and for Somalis themselves, is whether a meeting engineered by neighbors can translate into a sovereign solution that endures beyond diplomatic hospitality.
Can two leaders who have traded legal actions and accusations learn to share power over a city that both prizes and fears its own strategic value? For the people of Kismayo, the answer will be measured not only in declarations but in whether electricity stabilizes, markets reopen and sons and daughters see a future at home rather than on the road to conflict.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
