Nationalist Sanae Takaichi poised to become Japan’s first female prime minister

Japan’s choice of a conservative woman to lead the ruling party reframes familiar dilemmas

The Liberal Democratic Party’s selection of Sanae Takaichi as its leader — a 64‑year‑old conservative who could become Japan’s first female prime minister — is less a break with the past than a new turn in an old playbook. Her victory, against younger and more moderate rivals, signals the LDP’s attempt to recapture voters unsettled by inflation, stagnating wages and a rising appetite for parties that promise real change on immigration and security.

- Advertisement -

A victory that answers questions but raises others

Takaichi’s win was cast by the victor herself as a rescue mission. “Recently, I have heard harsh voices from across the country saying we don’t know what the LDP stands for anymore,” she said, promising to “turn people’s anxieties about their daily lives and the future into hope.” Her abrupt, work‑centred pledge — “I have thrown away my own work‑life balance and I will work, work, work” — sounded more Thatcherite than metropolitan; she has openly named Margaret Thatcher as an inspiration.

That mix of hard‑edged conservatism and personal drive helps explain why the party’s rank‑and‑file preferred her to Shinjiro Koizumi, the 44‑year‑old son of a once‑iconic reformer who offered a gentler image and an appeal to younger voters. Takaichi’s selection suggests the LDP believes restoring a muscular sense of purpose, rather than cosmetic generational change, is its fastest route back to public trust — and parliamentary dominance. A formal vote in the Diet is expected on Oct. 15, and the LDP’s parliamentary majority makes her the clear favourite to take the top job.

What this means for Japan’s economy and markets

On economic policy, Takaichi is a fervent advocate of the Abenomics playbook: fiscal stimulus and easier monetary policy to jolt growth. That stance has markets nervous because Japan carries one of the world’s heaviest public debt burdens, a fact that constrains any long‑term tolerance for sustained fiscal largesse. Naoya Hasegawa, chief bond strategist at Okasan Securities, warned that her rise reduced the chances the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates this month — a move markets had earlier priced in at roughly 60%.

If Takaichi pushes new spending to lift consumption and support businesses, investors will be watching two things closely: whether it stabilises inflation and wages, and whether it undermines confidence in the yen and Japanese sovereign debt. Her suggestion that previously negotiated trade or investment pacts with the United States could be revisited — including deals tied to tariff relief in exchange for Japanese investment — adds another layer of uncertainty to global investors assessing Japan as a safe harbour.

Security, symbolism and the neighbourhood

Takaichi’s nationalism is where domestic politics crosses into geopolitics. Her regular visits to Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine, a site that honours Japan’s war dead including Class‑A convicted war criminals, are more than ceremonial: they are a signal to Beijing and Seoul that Japan’s right flank intends to reclaim a more assertive posture. She has also floated ideas such as revising the pacifist constitution and forming what she called a “quasi‑security alliance” with Taiwan — moves that Beijing would view as provocative.

Taiwan’s president welcomed the development, calling Takaichi “a steadfast friend of Taiwan,” while the U.S. ambassador congratulated her and signalled a desire to deepen the Japan‑U.S. partnership “on every front.” Those endorsements underscore an enduring geopolitical paradox: partners in shared democratic values may simultaneously worry about implications for regional stability if Tokyo leans too hard into nationalist symbolism.

Domestic politics: an ageing party, younger voters drifting away

The LDP’s decades‑long grip on power has, in recent years, loosened. Under outgoing leader Shigeru Ishiba the ruling coalition lost its outright majorities in both houses — a political earthquake that precipitated his resignation. Parties ranging from the expansionist Democratic Party for the People to the anti‑immigration Sanseito have chipped away at younger and disaffected voters, offering blunt answers on migration and identity that resonate with a generation struggling with job precarity, housing costs and a shrinking social safety net.

That erosion helps explain why the LDP opted for a candidate whose rhetoric promises decisive action rather than incremental reform. But it also raises a question few inside the party seem eager to answer aloud: can the LDP win back a younger electorate by leaning into ideologically conservative, nationalistic messaging, or does that risk alienating the moderate majority that still wants pragmatic solutions to bread‑and‑butter issues?

Choices ahead — for Japan and its partners

Takaichi’s rise crystallises tensions that are playing out across democracies worldwide: the appeal of strong personalities who promise order and purpose in uncertain times; the question of whether economic nationalism and identity politics can revive long‑dominant parties; and the balancing act between reassuring allies and courting domestic constituencies with symbolic gestures.

For international observers, the immediate questions are practical: will she push for a looser monetary stance that spooks bond markets? Will her security posture accelerate Tokyo’s military normalisation or provoke regional backlash? For Japanese voters, the stakes are intimately local: will a harder line on migration and a return to stimulus translate into everyday relief at the supermarket and higher wages, or will it, in the words of many critics, be a cosmetic salve that leaves structural problems untouched?

As the Diet prepares to make Takaichi prime minister, those questions will shift from the realm of speculation to decisions with real consequence. A first — a woman at Japan’s helm — will be catalogued widely. But whether that first will usher in a different Japan, or merely a new face for longstanding currents, remains to be seen.

By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More