Analysis: Somalia’s counterterrorism campaign shows gains—but the next phase will test staying power
Somalia’s government says it is closer to defeating terrorism than at any point in its modern history. The claim rests on a three-front strategy—military operations, financial disruption and ideological delegitimization—backed by institutional rebuilding and a push to normalize civic life. The figures, initiatives and timelines advanced by Somali authorities sketch a picture of momentum that is tangible in liberated territory and safer city streets, especially in Mogadishu. The question now is whether the state can consolidate these gains and carry them south into remaining strongholds.
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Military momentum on several fronts
In 2022, Somali security forces launched what officials describe as one of the country’s most comprehensive counterterrorism campaigns, supported by local communities and international partners. Authorities report that more than 1.5 million people have been freed from the coercion of al-Shabaab and ISIS across central and eastern regions, with some districts emerging from militant rule for the first time in over a decade. The government credits Somali-led offensives and airstrikes for severing supply lines, driving surrenders and degrading command structures, particularly in Hirshabelle, Galmudug andPuntland State.
In Lower Shabelle, Operation Silent Storm—carried out by the Somali National Army alongside the African Union Stabilization Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) and international partners—has pushed al-Shabaab into rural hideouts, officials say. All bridges connecting Mogadishu to surrounding regions, once vulnerable to militant control and taxation, have been retaken and reopened. The reclaiming of key supply routes has eased civilian movement and tightened government control around the capital.
Authorities frame al-Shabaab’s recent guerrilla tactics less as resurgence than as attempts to open escape corridors under pressure from continuous air and ground operations. While such attacks remain lethal and disruptive, the government argues they point to a movement struggling to sustain prolonged conventional fights.
The state is also expanding its hold force. More than 20,000 soldiers have joined the national ranks in recent years, tasked with holding and stabilizing liberated areas. Importantly, Somali officials emphasize that national forces are increasingly conducting and sustaining operations with limited external support, a cornerstone for long-term security transition.
Mogadishu’s security picture has shifted
Nowhere are the changes more visible than in the capital. Between May 2022 and September 2025, terrorist-related incidents in Mogadishu decreased by 85%, according to government reporting. Authorities attribute the trend to a specialized military-police unit, tightened arms regulations, thousands of new CCTV cameras, intelligence-led urban operations and digital vehicle registration and monitoring. The cumulative effect, by the state’s account, has been to make markets and thoroughfares safer, drawing tourists at night and foreign investors back into the city’s orbit.
Cutting off the money that fuels violence
Al-Shabaab’s shadow taxation and extortion networks remain central to its resilience. The government says it has mounted an aggressive campaign to starve those systems. Officials report a 53% reduction in terrorist revenues in less than three years, more than 300 terrorism-financing prosecutions and investigations into over 3,500 bank accounts, with millions of dollars frozen or confiscated through legal procedures. Seventeen senior al-Shabaab operatives have been sanctioned; four, authorities say, were later killed in targeted operations. Regulators and banks are under pressure to close loopholes, an effort that not only constrains illicit finance but also strengthens confidence in Somalia’s financial sector.
Winning the war of ideas
Somalia’s leaders argue that durable security depends on an ideological shift as much as a military one. A new National Strategy for Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism is paired with a unified fatwa from religious scholars declaring the militants’ ideology un-Islamic. Officials say public support for al-Shabaab and ISIS has ebbed as clerics, civil society and the state assert that “Islam is peace,” seeking to deny extremists the religious legitimacy they have long claimed.
From security to state-building
Authorities cast recent counterterrorism gains as a foundation for rebuilding the state itself—accountable governance, resilient institutions and a more inclusive politics. Somalia is preparing a transition toward universal suffrage, with authorities noting intense enthusiasm among first-time voters. In Mogadishu, officials say roughly one million people have registered to elect local councils and municipal leadership for the first time in decades.
At the federal level, the government says it is leaning into reconciliation with member states, prioritizing negotiation over confrontation. Economic reforms have accelerated, with debt relief processes advancing, the national budget surpassing $1 billion and measured growth returning. Officials say the country is cautiously exploring pathways to responsibly develop natural resources, aiming to widen the economic base and attract investment in newly secure areas.
The next test: sustain, expand, hold
The government is signaling a major offensive to push further south and widen the Mogadishu corridor, paving the way for bigger operations next year. That plan acknowledges a familiar dilemma in counterinsurgency: clearing is not the same as holding. Enduring success will hinge on three interlocking tasks:
- Protecting communities in newly liberated districts with police, courts and services that eclipse the “shadow governance” militants once provided;
- Maintaining pressure on al-Shabaab’s finance and logistics networks so surviving cells cannot regenerate capacity or morale;
- Deepening the ideological isolation of extremists through credible religious leadership, youth opportunity and visible rule-of-law gains.
Even with the reported 85% drop in attacks in Mogadishu and substantial territorial gains, risk endures. Militants retain the capability to conduct asymmetric strikes and exploit security gaps, particularly during transitions or political strain. The durability of the progress outlined by Somali authorities will be measured not only by battlefield maps but by whether roads stay open, businesses invest, and citizens trust state institutions enough to resolve grievances peacefully.
A Somali-led effort, internationally reinforced
Somali leaders stress that this is a Somali-led campaign bolstered by partners supplying intelligence, training, financial support and kinetic assistance. The premise is straightforward: a stable Somalia serves regional and global security, while Somali ownership of the fight is essential for legitimacy at home. If the government can capitalize on Operation Silent Storm, sustain the squeeze on terrorist financing, and cement the “war of ideas” gains with credible governance, the coming year could mark a decisive turn in a struggle that has defined the country for more than three decades.
Bottom line
Somalia’s counterterrorism strategy—military pressure, financial disruption and ideological delegitimization, tethered to political and economic reform—has produced measurable gains. Turning those gains into irreversible progress will require steady resources, unity of command and patience from a public that has endured too much. The stakes could hardly be higher: a safer Mogadishu, a connected interior, and a state that increasingly protects rather than merely promises security.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
