Analysis: Turkish Intelligence Flags ‘Unprecedented Fragility’ in Somalia as Ankara’s Stakes Deepen
ANKARA, Turkey— A new intelligence academy report in Turkey warns that Somalia faces “unprecedented fragility,” identifying a confluence of security, political and institutional risks that could shape the trajectory of the country’s stability — and the future of Ankara’s most ambitious partnership in Africa.
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The assessment, titled “A Multidimensional Partnership Model,” acknowledges gains in the Turkey–Somalia relationship since 2011 but describes an environment defined by hard risks. It names Al-Shabaab’s rural entrenchment, political fragmentation between the federal government and member states, weak institutions, external pressures including information warfare, and economic strain as the core threats. While infrastructure improvements in Mogadishu, active security cooperation and potential economic openings — including Somalia’s East African Community membership — point to progress, the report argues those gains remain vulnerable.
Five hard risks undermining Somalia’s stability
- Insurgency:Al-Shabaab remains the most potent destabilizer, with rural control undermining state reach. Joint offensives accelerated in 2022 but were not sustained in subsequent years, the report notes. A smaller ISIS faction in Puntland State adds complexity, even with limited reach.
- Political fragmentation:An incomplete constitutional order fuels tense relations between the federal government and member states — notably Puntland State and Jubaland — with recurring confrontations over elections and revenue sharing.
- Institutional weakness:A governance crisis marked by thin administrative capacity, limited oversight and high donor dependence hinders Somalia’s ability to deliver services and execute projects.
- External pressures:Heightened geopolitical competition and information warfare raise the risk of miscalculation and policy volatility.
- Economic strain and climate stress:Despite debt relief via IMF and World Bank reforms, financial autonomy remains out of reach. The report also warns that future climate shocks could spur displacement on a scale that overwhelms government capacity.
Security gains — and a ceiling without external backing
The intelligence review underscores a central paradox: the Somali National Army still cannot secure the country alone. While training pipelines and joint operations offer a path to improved capabilities by 2030, the lingering insurgency and uneven territorial control reveal the limits of current momentum. The report cautions that security cooperation must be sustained and paired with political and institutional reforms or risk losing hard-won gains.
Ankara’s model: from security to economic opportunity
Turkey has built a broad footprint in Somalia since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 2011 visit, spanning defense, infrastructure, health and humanitarian aid. Camp TURKSOM in Mogadishu — Turkey’s largest overseas military training base — has trained more than 15,000 Somali troops. Turkish firms operate the capital’s airport and port, embedding Ankara in critical infrastructure that underpins state functionality and commerce.
Parliamentary debates in Turkey frame the strategy as sequential: stabilize security, then open space for Turkish business. That logic has guided a deepening partnership that includes land exchanges for embassy compounds, a new Somali Embassy under construction in Ankara, and Turkey’s largest embassy abroad in Mogadishu. Total financial and development assistance exceeds $1 billion, according to the report.
Fault lines: drones, deals and domestic optics
The same model carries political risk. Turkish media have alleged that a significant portion of aid flows to companies close to Erdogan operating in Somalia, prompting criticism that foreign engagement doubles as a conduit for domestic business interests. Meanwhile, UN investigators reported in 2022 that Turkey supplied armed drones to Somalia without UN approval, potentially violating sanctions — a finding that can complicate Ankara’s international posture even as it positions itself as a stabilizing partner.
Trade has also softened, dipping from $426 million in 2023 to $384 million in 2024, though Turkey remains Somalia’s leading foreign investor. Energy is the newest, and most sensitive, frontier. Nordic Monitor published the full text of a hydrocarbons agreement submitted to the Turkish Parliament for ratification on April 22, 2025, offering the first detailed look at scope and terms. The report says Turkey secured sweeping operational and financial privileges — the kind of asymmetric arrangements that can accelerate investment but also draw scrutiny in Somalia’s contentious political landscape.
Federal tensions that stall policy
Political fragmentation is not simply a matter of friction; it tangibly stalls national decision-making, the intelligence academy warns. Divergent interests between Mogadishu and regional states — especially over electoral procedures and revenue sharing — interrupt policy continuity. That instability bleeds into the implementation of Turkey-backed development projects that depend on predictable coordination among federal and regional authorities.
Institutions that can’t carry the load
Turkey’s long-term bet depends on institutions that can plan, spend and oversee. The report is blunt: procurement delays and weak oversight continue to slow project delivery. Debt relief moderated immediate fiscal pressure, but Somalia has yet to reach financial autonomy. The consequence is a cycle in which donor-driven timelines and priorities often outrun government capacity, risking public fatigue and exposing partners to reputational blowback when implementation lags.
Climate and information risks on the horizon
The assessment adds two accelerants to the baseline risk: climate shocks and information warfare. Severe droughts or floods could trigger displacement on a scale that overwhelms already strained systems. At the same time, external actors and local factions are increasingly using information operations to shape narratives and policy responses. That combination creates a volatile arena for both Somali decision-makers and foreign partners.
Pathways to safeguard gains
The report’s core message is not pessimism but conditionality: progress is plausible, but it hinges on managing five interlocking risks. For Ankara’s partnership to endure — from Camp TURKSOM to airport and port concessions and potential hydrocarbons projects — three areas appear decisive:
- Security continuity with political cover:Sustained training and joint operations must be insulated from federal–state clashes that stall campaign plans and resource flows.
- Institutional strengthening:Building procurement, audit and project management capacity is as critical as kinetic gains against Al-Shabaab. Without it, donor projects will falter and public trust will erode.
- Transparency and compliance:Clearer public accounting for aid, contracts and security assistance — including adherence to UN processes — can mitigate backlash and shield both governments from allegations of impropriety.
The bottom line
Somalia’s fragile stability and Turkey’s expanding role are now tightly entwined. The intelligence academy’s warning is a signal to both capitals: tactical security wins, infrastructure upgrades and new energy deals will matter only if they are accompanied by constitutional settlement, administrative competence and climate resilience. Otherwise, the same forces that enabled a decade of partnership may, under mounting pressure, expose its limits.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
