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Texas Republican Stronghold May Be Shifting Toward Democrats

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Newsroom published Updated 1 hour ago 5-minute read
Dhageyso Qodobada AI Narration • ~5 min audio
Is the Republican stronghold of Texas turning blue?

Democratic canvasser Nasya Causey leans against the boot of her car, its interior crammed with campaign posters.

In Irving, just north of Dallas, she is working to persuade voters to choose Democratic candidates as they arrive at the Valley Ranch Library to cast their ballots early.

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Ms Causey has been campaigning for Amber Givens, the Democratic candidate for Dallas County Criminal District Attorney.

She says interest in the party appears stronger than it has been in previous elections.

“That is what they are looking for,” she said.

“Any Republican is getting a run for their money,” she added.

Nasya Causey said Democratic interest appears to be growing

For decades, Democrats have sought to break the Republican grip on Texas.

Now, after years of disappointment, some in the party are asking whether state representative and seminary student James Talarico could finally deliver the breakthrough they have been waiting for.

Polling has shown him running neck-and-neck with Ken Paxton, the Republican endorsed by US President Donald Trump, in the contest for a US Senate seat.

The former middle school teacher made his case on Tuesday by focusing on Texans facing higher grocery and fuel bills, while attacking billionaires and data centres.

“Texas is not for sale,” he said, arguing that “corrupt political deals have gutted our healthcare and sent premiums skyrocketing.

“We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis.”

A Talarico victory could give Democrats an important opening as they seek to regain control of the Senate.

The party needs a net gain of four seats to do so.

Polling also indicates Democrats may have a chance to win back the House of Representatives.

Control of both chambers would give the party greater authority to investigate the president and his administration, as well as the ability to obstruct parts of his legislative programme.

James Talarico speaks at a campaign rally in Weslaco, Texas

“James Talarico is running a very good campaign, but Ken Paxton has had a lot of questions about his personal life and scandals that the Talarico campaign has been able to use,” said Philip Harold, professor of Politics at the University of Dallas.

Professor Harold added: “A lot has to happen for the Democrat to win.

“There [are] more Republicans in the state, so Republican turnout has to be depressed.

“We know Democrats are enthusiastic about this race, enthusiastic about this candidate.

“They will turn out, but how much is the president’s unpopularity in Texas going to affect Republican turnout?”

Elon Musk is backing Mr Paxton’s campaign

President Trump has made repeated trips to Texas during his midterm election tour, urging Republicans to turn out for Mr Paxton and attacking his rival, whom he has nicknamed “Talafreako”.

Republicans have repeatedly sought to portray the Democratic nominee as a vegan who believes God is non-binary. Mr Talarico has acknowledged that the latter comment was intended to be provocative.

He has also previously argued that cutting meat consumption is the “moral thing to do” and “necessary to fight climate change”.

As the midterm contests threaten to become the most expensive in US history, Republican backers are directing vast sums of money towards Texas.

Few donors are spending more than Texas resident Elon Musk, who has committed hundreds of millions of dollars to supporting Republican candidates.

His largest political investment is in Texas, where he is helping Mr Paxton after the attorney general defeated Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary, following Mr Trump’s decision not to endorse the incumbent.

“Attorney General Ken Paxton, he won the primary, so all Republicans, we’re behind him,” said Monty Montanez, chair of the Dallas County Republican Party, when asked about the controversy.

Monty Montanez said: ‘We as a society, we need to come together, win, lose, or otherwise’

But should Mr Paxton be defeated, where would responsibility lie?

Mr Montanez replied: “We don’t assign blame, right?

“We as a society, we need to come together, win, lose, or otherwise.

“We just need to respect and understand what the elections are, learn how to work together and just move forward together as a society.”

Republicans maintain that the race remains competitive, even as rising living costs have placed the party under mounting pressure.

Mr Montanez said Texas voters faced a choice between following their financial interests and voting according to their conscience.

He described it as “a fundamental decision”.

Why are all eyes on Texas in US midterms?

“What do you want for Texas? This is a turning point for us to decide which way we want to move the state,” he said.

“Do we want to move towards open borders? Are we okay with boys playing in girls’ sports?” he asked.

The Republican message appears to be finding an audience among some voters.

Although the conversations were not a scientific poll, discussions with Dallas voters showed a divided response to the Senate race.

“[Ken Paxton] wants to make it where kids have a choice in regards to their sexual preference,” said one woman.

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Another woman said she planned to vote Democratic for the first time because she opposed the current administration. Other men dismissed Mr Talarico as a “creep” and a “nut”.

A young woman said she supported Mr Talarico because he was not “MAGA” and appeared likely to “actually make some positive changes”.

For all the energy behind the Democratic campaign, the central question is whether it can overcome Texas’s enduring Republican advantage.

“If the election was held a month ago, Talarico would have won,” Professor Harold said.

But he added: “Republicans had a midterm convention, the first midterm convention of any political party.

“They had it here in Dallas.

“They used it to raise a ton of money from donors in north Texas and elsewhere, and flood the airwaves with negative ads to support their candidates.

“So they’re banking on those negative ads working, and maybe they will.”

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