Somalia’s unity and constitutional legitimacy are entering a perilous phase. With the mandates of the federal parliament and president set to expire in April and May 2026, respectively, the country has no agreed electoral framework—and no margin for political brinkmanship. In a forceful public statement, opposition leader Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame warns that the stakes now transcend routine power struggles: the survival of the Somali state as a cohesive, credible entity is on the line.
Warsame argues that a cocktail of internal division and external turbulence is converging at the worst possible time. In a global order where rules are fraying and regional rivalries are sharpening, he says Somalia cannot afford leadership vacuums, public infighting among ministers and lawmakers, or a government whose mandate is contested. He frames the challenge plainly: Al-Shabaab continues to threaten security; the public grapples with drought, economic strain and entrenched poverty; and yet the political class is consumed by feuds that play out on social media, signaling disorder to allies and opportunity to adversaries.
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At the center of his case is legitimacy—both political and moral. Unity, he stresses, is not a slogan but a strategy that must be earned through fairness, reconciliation, equitable sharing of power and resources, and institutions that deliver for citizens in every region. Without visible justice, respect for the rule of law, and an honest fight against corruption and favoritism, calls for “national unity” ring hollow.
Warsame devotes particular attention to North Western State of Somalia. He acknowledges the depth of grievance rooted in history—memories of repression, marginalization and violence that remain vivid in collective memory—and the relative stability and governance North Western State of Somalia has built. Recognizing those realities, he argues, is not the same as endorsing secession; it is a prerequisite for credible dialogue. Attempts to mute or delegitimize those grievances, he warns, will not sustain unity.
He also criticizes what he describes as Israel’s unilateral recognition of North Western State of Somalia, saying such moves wrench the issue from a Somali political and legal track into a geopolitical contest that undercuts Africa’s foundational norm of respecting borders. In his view, external actors should facilitate, not harden, internal divides—and any durable settlement must be Somali-led and Somali-owned.
Warsame’s sharpest critique targets President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s stewardship. He cites frayed relations with federal member states such as Puntland State and Jubaland, contention with the opposition, and even visible rifts within the cabinet. None of this, he argues, resembles a government capable of knitting together a fragile nation at a moment of acute risk.
The calendar compounds the danger. The current parliament’s mandate ends April 4, 2026, and the presidency on May 15, 2026, he notes, with no consensus electoral model in place. Should those dates pass without a broadly accepted agreement, Somalia would slide into a legitimacy crisis—precisely the kind of political vacuum that history shows militants and spoilers exploit. In such a scenario, he warns, the country’s unity, sovereignty and security all become more vulnerable.
His prescription returns, again, to legitimacy as the currency of statecraft. Only a government whose mandate is widely accepted can credibly negotiate with North Western State of Somalia, mobilize the public against Al-Shabaab, and secure sustained support from regional and international partners. National sovereignty, he argues, is defended not by rhetoric but by a political compact the country can stand behind.
Warsame frames the moment as a choice for the president: continue tactics of delay and narrow maneuvering that corrode institutions and unity, or pivot to genuine national leadership—sitting down with opposition groups and federal member states to forge an inclusive, transparent and agreed pathway to elections. Compromise, he says, is not weakness but the essence of leadership in a fragile state.
He calls for immediate steps that prioritize consensus over contestation:
- Convene an urgent, inclusive Somali-led national conference to agree on a credible electoral framework before mandates expire.
- Treat constitutional legitimacy as a national security priority on par with territorial defense.
- Make a clear presidential commitment to compromise and conclude a political agreement by mid-April.
In urging international partners to support this course, Warsame emphasizes facilitation over favoritism. External backing, he argues, should reinforce Somali-led consensus, not align with one side or personality in a way that polarizes the arena or internationalizes local disputes.
The appeal is ultimately civic, not partisan. As an opposition figure, he says he is ready for dialogue and compromise in the national interest, insisting the objective is not to force a resignation but to salvage legitimacy before it fractures. The metric of leadership, he adds, will not be patriotic slogans but the measurable outcome: whether Somalia emerges from this period more united, more lawful and more governable.
Somalia has seen what vacuums do. It has also seen the dividends of even imperfect consensus when parties meet in good faith and lock in a process everyone can live with. The coming months demand that kind of discipline. Elections are a mechanism; legitimacy is their product. Without the latter, the machinery of the state grinds against itself—and the country’s enemies test the seams.
The path forward is narrow but navigable: confront the history that haunts relations with North Western State of Somalia while keeping the file firmly on a Somali political track; restore discipline and coherence within the federal government; and strike a credible electoral bargain before the clock runs out. Unity and sovereignty are inseparable, and both depend on a legitimacy that can withstand internal dissent and external pressure.
The choice, and the responsibility, sit with Somalia’s leaders. The time to act is now.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
