Somalia’s fragile federal compact faces a test as Mogadishu convenes regional leaders on 2026 elections
MOGADISHU — President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud will host a carefully staged meeting in Mogadishu this week with leaders from three federal member states, a gathering that officials say is aimed at salvaging a badly strained process for the 2026 national elections. Expected to attend are Abdiasis Hassan Mohamed (Laftagareen) of South West, Ahmed Abdi Kariye (Qoorqoor) of Galmudug, and Ali Gudlawe Hussein of HirShabelle.
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But two influential players in Somalia’s federal architecture — Puntland State and Jubaland — have signaled they will not participate, a decision that underscores how political fragmentation could derail efforts to hold credible nationwide polls. Their absence throws into relief long-simmering disputes over power-sharing, resource control and the shape of Somalia’s federal constitution.
What’s at stake
At a practical level, the meeting is about process: how to agree on voter lists, the role of clan elders, security arrangements and the legal framework that will govern the selection of parliamentarians and, ultimately, the president. But beneath those technical issues lies a deeper contest over who sets the rules of the game in a country where central authority is thin and regional identity is strong.
“If the process is seen as exclusionary, parts of the country simply won’t buy into the result,” said a Western diplomat who follows Somalia closely. “That’s not just an academic worry: it affects stability, counterterrorism efforts against al-Shabaab, and humanitarian access.”
Somalia has long used a form of indirect voting in which clan delegates pick members of parliament, who then elect the president. Efforts to move toward universal suffrage have stalled amid insecurity, logistical hurdles and political disagreement. The 2026 cycle was billed as a chance to make progress; instead, it has laid bare the fragility of the federal compact.
Regional grievances and the politics of exclusion
Puntland State and Jubaland have repeatedly pushed back against what they describe as unilateral moves from Mogadishu and want guarantees that any electoral arrangement will adhere strictly to signed agreements and constitutional norms. Their leaders argue that past pacts were breached and that the federal government needs to honor power-sharing arrangements before elections proceed.
Observers point out that both regions command strategic ports and military leverage and host powerful political networks in the diaspora and the military. Their withdrawal is more than a negotiating tactic; it is a lever that could block consensus on electoral law or logistics.
A resident of Garowe, the capital of Puntland State, described the mood back home as wary. “People here feel that decisions affecting our future are being taken without our say,” he said. “There is fear that marginalization will only make things worse.”
Security, donors and the shadow of al-Shabaab
International partners — the United Nations, the African Union and Western donors — are watching closely. Much of Somalia’s recent stability rests on an uneasy partnership among federal and regional forces, supported by international training and financing. The fight against al-Shabaab, which still controls swathes of rural Somalia and stages frequent attacks, depends in part on political cohesion; fragmentation could create security vacuums that the insurgents exploit.
Donors have also signalled they expect transparent, credible elections as part of any continued assistance. That raises stakes for Mogadishu: a contested process would jeopardize external support at a time when Somalia faces fierce droughts, food insecurity and the lingering economic shocks of global inflation.
How Mogadishu plans to bridge divides
President Mohamud’s strategy appears twofold: first, to secure buy-in from as many federal member states as possible and present a package of concessions and procedural guarantees; second, to frame the dialogue as a national interest imperative — not merely a partisan tussle. The exact agenda has not been made public, but officials say the emphasis will be on transparency, a clear timeline and mechanisms for dispute resolution.
“The president needs a narrative that speaks to fairness and national unity,” said Asha Nur, a Somali political analyst in Nairobi. “Otherwise the optics will be of a capital imposing terms on outlying regions.”
Broader questions about federalism and representation
Somalia’s struggle echoes wider global debates about how diverse, multi-clan societies transition from patronage-based politics to institutions that can manage competition peacefully. From Iraq to Libya and parts of the Sahel, states emerging from conflict grapple with the balance between centralized authority and devolved power. The Somali case is distinctive for its deeply embedded clan system and the vital role of traditional elders in political mediation.
Can a federal model that grew out of wartime bargains be transformed into a stable system of accountable governance? How do you design elections when insecurity limits movement and when the legitimacy of mid-level institutions is contested? And what is the role of international actors in nudging a fragile polity toward greater inclusion without appearing to dictate outcomes?
Those questions will shape not only Somalia’s immediate course to 2026 but also its longer-term prospects for peace and development.
On the streets of Mogadishu
In the capital’s Hamarweyne district, men gathered at tea stalls watched the news on mobile screens and traded opinions about the meeting. “We want leaders to sit together and agree,” said Abdullahi, a tea-seller who gave only one name. “If they fight, the country will continue to suffer; if they agree, maybe our children will have a different Somalia.”
Whether the meeting will be enough to coax Puntland State and Jubaland back to the table remains unclear. What is certain is that the outcomes will reverberate beyond Somalia’s borders: they will influence regional security in the Horn of Africa, the effectiveness of international aid, and the trajectory of a country still trying to stitch itself together after decades of conflict.
As Somalis and their partners wait for the Mogadishu talks to begin, the central question is not just how to hold elections in 2026, but whether those elections can be the beginning of a more inclusive politics — or simply another episode in a cycle of contestation.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
