Ahmed Madobe asserts Jubaland intelligence surpasses Somalia’s NISA capabilities
Jubaland’s intelligence push tests Somalia’s fragile center-periphery balance
KISMAYO — When Jubaland leader Ahmed Madobe unveiled a gleaming new headquarters for the Jubbaland Intelligence and Security Agency this month, he did more than cut a ribbon. Standing before a bank of monitors and satellite dishes, Madobe declared that his region’s spy service now outperforms the federal government’s National Intelligence and Security Agency.
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“When it comes to security information in the Horn of Africa, the agency everyone turns to today is Jubaland’s Intelligence and Security Agency,” he said. “I am confident that even Somalia’s federal government comes after us.” The claim, blunt and public, crystallizes a deepening reality in Somalia: the decentralization of security and intelligence as regional administrations entrench their own capacities.
More than rhetoric — a decade of building
Madobe and his allies say JISA is the fruit of 12 years of steady investment in personnel, training and technology. According to officials at the opening, the new facility houses modern surveillance and communications systems, and agents have received specialized counterterrorism training aimed at Al-Shabaab and cross-border threats.
For residents of Kismayo, the port city that anchors Jubaland, the buildup is tangible. “We sleep a little easier now,” said one Jubaland security officer, speaking on condition of anonymity. “They can pick up chatter, move forces fast. That has broken some of Al-Shabaab’s freedom of movement.”
Jubaland’s security architecture has long been intertwined with Kenya’s strategic interests. Nairobi has worked closely with Jubaland against Al-Shabaab, and Kenya’s intelligence services have played a visible role in mediating periodic tensions between Madobe and Mogadishu. Reports say Kenya’s National Intelligence Service director Noordin Haji helped broker President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s recent visit to Kismayo, though a full reconciliation has yet to be struck.
Cooperation, competition and the Gedo flashpoint
Tensions go beyond personalities. The federal government has been attempting to assert control over parts of the Gedo region — an area both strategically important and contested. Jubaland lawmakers have warned Mogadishu against “political interference,” accusing the center of undermining federalism while federal authorities say they are protecting national unity and sovereignty.
Those disputes are not abstract. They have operational stakes: who controls intelligence flows, who calls the shots during counterterror operations, and whose priorities guide the fight against Al-Shabaab. Madobe’s insistence on JISA’s superiority is as much a political statement as an operational one.
What parallel intelligence means for counterterrorism
There are two faces to the rise of regional intelligence services. On one hand, locally based agencies can be faster and more attuned to the social landscape — clan ties, local grievances, market networks — that national agencies sometimes miss. In conflict zones from Iraq to Libya, subnational forces have often provided the actionable human intelligence that larger, less embedded services lack.
On the other hand, parallel security architectures risk fragmentation. Multiple agencies with overlapping mandates can hamper coordination, creating blind spots or, worse, fueling rivalry. That competition can be exploited by the very groups they are trying to defeat. Al-Shabaab has a long record of leveraging local disputes to sow confusion, recruit fighters and stage attacks.
“The danger is not in having strong regional capabilities,” said a Horn of Africa security analyst who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “It’s in the absence of clear oversight, joint protocols and trust between Mogadishu and the regions. Without that, you can have excellent intelligence and still lose the war of politics.”
Regional trends and the international dimension
Jubaland’s move is part of a broader regional pattern. Across the Horn of Africa and beyond, subnational actors have asserted security roles traditionally held by central states — from Ethiopian regional militias to Kenya’s local border administrations. International partners must navigate this complexity: donors want effective counterterrorism, but their assistance can inadvertently bolster local power bases and shift political equations.
For Kenya, the stakes are immediate. Nairobi’s interest in a secure Jubaland is driven by cross-border threats and refugee flows, and by the strategic value of Kismayo. For Washington, Brussels and others, a capable local partner that can deny Al-Shabaab safe haven is welcome. But whose authority prevails when these priorities clash with Mogadishu’s insistence on centralized control?
Questions for Somalia’s future
The JISA opening raises hard questions about the shape of Somali federalism after decades of conflict. Can a balance be struck in which regional intelligence agencies enhance national security without becoming instruments of regional domination? How will oversight work — through parliamentary committees, joint federal-regional councils, or through the African Union mission that still plays a role in training and coordination?
Madobe’s words and the new headquarters are reminders that institutions matter as much as personalities. Building capacity is costly and slow, and Jubaland’s gamble is that investment will buy it leverage as much as security. For the federal government, the test is whether it can accommodate regional strength without allowing centrifugal forces to fracture a fragile state.
As Jubaland touts its technical edge, the real contest will be less about which side has the sharper cameras and encrypted radios and more about who can translate intelligence into legitimacy: the authority that protects citizens and adheres to oversight, or the one that simply wields power unchecked. In a country still stitching itself back together, that distinction may determine whether gains against militants are permanent or transient.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.