Behind closed doors in Villa Somalia: former foes, fragile alliances
MOGADISHU — In a sign of how fragile and fluid Somali politics remain, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud convened a private meeting at Villa Somalia this week with a who’s who of figures who recently left the Somali National Salvation Council. The gathering — attended by former Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, ex-Parliament Speaker Mohamed Mursal Sheikh Abdirahman, and Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, the one-time president of SouthWest State — has stirred speculation about a reordering of alliances ahead of contested federal member state ballots.
- Advertisement -
Details of the closed-door talks were scarce, but two people familiar with the meeting said participants reached a quiet understanding that appears to include presidential backing for Sharif Hassan’s bid to reclaim power in SouthWest State. The talks come as Abdulaiz Lafta-Gareen, the incumbent SouthWest president, has reportedly faced restrictions in Mogadishu amid an escalating dispute over his region’s political management.
“This was not a social call,” said one insider. “It was about stabilizing a political map that has become dangerously fragmented.” The source spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions were meant to be confidential.
Villa Somalia, elders’ councils and the choreography of power
Villa Somalia, the ornate seaside complex that serves as the executive seat, is as much a stage for modern statecraft as it is a repository of older political rituals. In Somalia, where formal institutions often intertwine with clan-based bargaining and the influence of traditional elders, private meetings like this are part of how power is brokered. For years, elites have relied on backroom gatherings to prevent public crises — or to reconfigure alliances when crises loom.
It’s notable that the participants are familiar faces of the national elite. Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke has been prime minister twice and remains a heavyweight in political networks; Mohamed Mursal’s tenure as parliament speaker placed him at the center of legislative manoeuvres; and Sharif Hassan commands respect in parts of the southwest, where allegiances are shaped by clan ties as much as by political promises.
“When former presidents, prime ministers and parliament speakers sit in the same room with the president, you can assume there’s a significant calculus at play,” said a veteran Mogadishu analyst. “These are actors who know the risks of fragmentation and the costs of a constitutional vacuum.”
Why SouthWest State matters
The SouthWest region is one of Somalia’s federal member states, an area where the balance of local power has implications far beyond its borders. Control of a member state provides a platform for influence in national politics, access to federal resources, and the ability to shape electoral blocs that determine the composition of parliament — and by extension, who becomes president.
Federal member state elections in Somalia have been repeatedly delayed in recent years, with national leaders citing security, logistical challenges, and disputes over voter selection systems. Those delays have heightened the stakes of every contest that does proceed. A shift in SouthWest leadership could ripple into negotiations over federal resources, security partnerships with the Somali National Army and international donors, and the crucial parliamentary math ahead of presidential votes.
“The fear is that regional squabbles will cascade into national stalemate,” said a Somali political scientist. “We’ve seen how delays and disputed results can freeze governance and erode public trust.”
Implications: consolidation, co-optation or something else?
Observers offered two broad readings of the Villa Somalia talks. One is pragmatic: President Hassan, who returned to the presidency in 2022 after a period out of office, may be trying to consolidate support to prevent spiralling fragmentation ahead of federal contests. Bringing in former council members and signalling support for a candidate like Sharif Hassan could be an attempt to craft a workable coalition and keep the political floor from dropping out.
The other, more cautionary interpretation views the meeting as emblematic of an entrenched pattern of elite bargaining that sidelines broader democratic participation. Critics argue that behind-the-scenes deals among political heavyweights too often determine outcomes that affect millions, without adequate transparency or accountability.
“There’s always a risk that these arrangements are more about co-opting rivals than about strengthening institutions,” said a Western diplomat who follows Somali politics. “Short-term stability can come at the cost of longer-term state-building.”
What it means for citizens
For ordinary Somalis, the practical consequences are immediate: who controls a federal member state affects security, local jobs, access to services and the allocation of aid. In areas where governance is weak, the personality and networks of regional leaders can mean the difference between a contested ballot and outright violence.
And the optics matter. Repeated closed-door negotiations risk deepening a sense that national politics is a closed game, played by an elite and adjudicated in private. That perception can fuel apathy or resentment, and in some cases, push political energy into more volatile channels.
“People ask: Who speaks for us?” said a community elder in the capital, reflecting a sentiment heard in many quarters. “If decisions are made behind curtains, how do our needs get heard?”
Broader trends and questions for the future
The Villa Somalia meeting is neither an isolated incident nor a simple local power struggle. It’s part of a pattern across fragile states where the interplay of informal power, institutional weakness and contested elections shapes political outcomes. As Somalia charts its path toward more regularized democratic processes, key questions remain: Can elite bargaining be harnessed to produce predictable, transparent outcomes? Or will it continue to be a stopgap that postpones deeper reforms?
International partners who provide security and development assistance will watch closely. They have long pressed Somali leaders to move toward inclusive, predictable electoral mechanisms and to build durable institutions. Yet donors and diplomats must also reckon with the reality that compromise among elites often prevents immediate collapse.
For now, the quiet accord at Villa Somalia signals that the political map in Somalia is still being redrawn — through whispers, bargaining and the careful choreography of power. Whether that redrawing will deliver stability or simply rearrange familiar lines of patronage remains an open question.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
