Somalia faces defining test to pair offshore wealth with onshore responsibility

By Dr. Ali Said FaqiTuesday April 14, 2026

Somalia is approaching a defining crossroads. The possibility of offshore oil and gas development by the Turkish firm could open a route to economic independence and lasting stability. For a nation long dependent on outside assistance, it is an unusually promising chance to shape its own economic destiny. Yet promise by itself will not deliver results. Around the world, resource-rich countries have learned that without sound governance, natural wealth can deepen instability instead of reducing it.

Two priorities will decide the outcome: environmental impact management and revenue governance. These are the twin pillars that will determine whether offshore resources become a national asset or a national liability.

A stable and peaceful Somalia is essential for either path to work. Political turbulence and weak institutions make successful resource development highly unlikely. Stability, functioning governance structures and a credible democratic trajectory are not extras; they are the bedrock of responsible resource management.

The environmental stakes are immediate and tangible. Somalia’s coastline, the longest in Africa, sustains thousands of families through fishing and marine livelihoods. Offshore exploration carries significant risks that cannot be dismissed. Oil spills, even when infrequent, can be catastrophic. Routine activity, including chemical discharges and seismic operations, can also gradually damage marine ecosystems and the coastal economy.

Countries with strong regulatory systems confront those risks through strict oversight and continuous assessment. Somalia is still developing that capacity, which makes early preparation all the more important. Federal and state institutions must strengthen environmental awareness now. In my own experience across regulatory systems, when environmental safeguards are not built in early, the result is often far more expensive corrections later.

A sensible step would be to create a dedicated Department of Environmental Regulation and Assessment, an independent, technically capable body tasked with evaluating, monitoring and enforcing environmental standards. Without such an institution, environmental protection risks remaining a paper exercise rather than a working system.

How Somalia handles the money from natural resources matters just as much. In many countries, the downfall of resource wealth stems less from low earnings than from poor financial management. When transparency and accountability are absent, public funds can be diverted, feeding corruption and instability.

South Sudan and Nigeria offer cautionary lessons. In both countries, oil wealth failed to produce broad-based development. Instead, weak oversight and fragile institutions helped fuel economic distortions, social tensions and environmental harm. Those examples are not an argument against development; they are a warning that regulation must advance alongside extraction.

Somalia has one advantage many countries lacked: it can start before large revenues begin to flow. That creates space to establish transparent and accountable systems in advance. This means clear legal frameworks, independent oversight, public reporting of revenue and spending, and robust auditing mechanisms. It would also be wise to establish a sovereign wealth framework to protect the interests of future generations and cushion the economy against volatility.

Strong legal and contractual structures are also essential to secure fair deals and defend national interests. Clear resource-sharing arrangements between federal and regional authorities will be necessary to prevent disputes and safeguard unity.

Environmental protection and revenue management are not separate questions. They are linked responsibilities that rest on the same foundation: strong institutions, transparency and disciplined leadership.

This is, above all, a test of governance. It is a test of whether Somalia can move beyond short-term calculations and build systems that serve the national interest over time. Natural resources do not build nations on their own. Institutions do.

This op-ed is not a political statement. It is a technical and policy-based reflection grounded in environmental science, regulatory experience and a commitment to sustainable national development.

If Somalia manages its resources well, enforces environmental rules and keeps revenue practices transparent, it can lay the groundwork for durable prosperity for its people.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Hiiraan Online’s editorial stance.