For nearly a month now, the semi-autonomous region of Northeastern State in Somalia has become a theater of military operations as security forces advance against Islamic State militants entrenched in its rugged mountains. It’s a tense standoff, a test of endurance and strategy. What makes these events profoundly compelling? It could be the frenetic chess game unfolding between the regional forces and a disciplined insurgent group.
The crescendo of this operation seemed to reach new heights late last week. The regional forces, after a valiant push, routed the militants from Turmasaale—a vital location about 150 kilometers southeast of Bosaso. Northeastern State’s leader, Said Abdullahi Deni, underscored the gravity of the situation this past weekend by greeting injured soldiers, including a senior officer, at the airport. “Their bravery needs no introduction,” Deni seemed to say, merely with his presence among them. Before the clash at Turmasaale, which some say marks the high watermark of this offensive, the forces faced little resistance securing caves, makeshift camps, and scattered villages.
An unexpected voice capturing these developments is Brigadier General Ahmed Abdullahi Sheikh. A man of military gravitas, Sheikh formerly helmed the Somali army’s special operations and closely follows his home region’s turmoil. “Losing Turmasaale is a significant setback for the insurgents,” he observed. “This was their crucial supply line.” His words paint a vivid picture of the strategic freedom the militants lost: from coordinating drone-deployed ammunition to replenishing mundane supplies. Surely, a commendable advance by Northeastern State’s brigades.
Yet, this wasn’t a hollow victory. Both sides incurred staggering casualties—a sobering testament to the ongoing belligerence. “The weapon of choice for terror across the globe,” Sheikh reflected, “remains IEDs. But progress is undeniable. For the past three weeks, regional forces have advanced and now wield an upper hand.”
This confrontation is far from isolated. The IS militants’ main camps, shadowed near Dhaadaar village, remain unconquered. Despite the territorial setbacks, the insurgents audaciously claimed responsibility for various attacks on Northeastern State forces, including a ferocious suicide attack on December 31, 2024. A lethal symposium of aggression executed by militants not just from within, but across borders.
Looking ahead, Sheikh unfurls a hopeful panorama—he’s confident of a military eclipse over IS before Ramadan’s dawning in four weeks. “Planning has been meticulous, and local communities extend indispensable support,” he affirms, hinting at the operation’s depth. Foreign incursion intensifies local efforts and motives alike. “The yardstick for victory?” Sheikh muses, “Capturing their bastions, commandeering their strategic nexus.”
So, how did we get here? The presence of IS in Somalia is a modern phenomenon—not yet two decades old. A faction of al-Shabab mutineers sowed the seeds for Islamic State’s Somali chapter, pledging allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Over time, the group grew, enveloping foreign combatants from the Middle East and East Africa—an assembly of discontent becoming a formidable force.
The mantle to lead IS Somalia reportedly drapes upon Abdulkadir Mumin. Some U.S. intelligence analysts even label him as the global emir. He directs, delegates, and dictates, becoming indispensable to IS’s African efforts. His reach, reportedly documented, bridges financiers from remote, allied terror-affiliates.
America recognizes this threat. It supports Somali security apparatuses, notably training elite units like the Danab forces. U.S. airstrikes have continually targeted IS and al-Shabab strongholds, with around ten such offensives conducted in 2024 alone. Notably, a surgical strike eliminated Mohamed Mire, a high-ranking al-Shabab commander, on December 24 in southern Somalia. Sheikh, once trained by U.S. forces, ranks among those leveraging this support strategically.
On the ground, there’s cautious optimism. An unnamed U.S. official reassured VOA that national interests align with strengthening these Somali forces. “A commitment to disrupting, degrading, and defeating VEOs in the Horn of Africa remains unwavering,” the official conveyed—ensuring that consecutive U.S. administrations consistently advocate such priorities.
Yet, concerns about political oscillations in Washington loom, influence trickling back into Somalia’s conflictual landscapes. The Trump administration’s prior withdrawal of U.S. troops in January 2021 was short-lived, as the Biden administration reversed this decision in May 2022. Now, anticipations flutter over possible policy shifts should Trump return to the White House. Sheikh, however, harbors confidence against regression, pointing to the palpable threat terrorism still poses across Somalia.
Abdi Hassan Hussein, known as “Abdi Yare,” once served as Northeastern State’s chief of police and regional intelligence head. His perspective sheds light on the broader implications of this conflict. This campaign, he warns, is pivotal for not just Somalia but the Horn of Africa and beyond. Laying siege to IS is critical—an imperative for stability that withstands boundaries.
Abdi Yare tempers his optimism with realism. The rugged terrain poses challenges that could indeed elongate hostilities. “The combative zone,” he intimates, “demands guerrilla warfare finesse, potentially prolonging engagements. The enemy remains resolute.” His apprehensions aren’t unfounded—the IS enclave, equipped for the long haul, is reportedly fortified within Mount Al-Madow’s recesses, housing supplies and bolstering operations.
Unified intelligence suggests that IS-Somalia’s numbers mushroomed from initial estimates, signifying a doubling, now purported between 600 and 700 fighters. An influx from regions like Ethiopia, Morocco, and Yemen corroborates fears of expanding forces. Experts suggest further accretion is imminent. Abdi Yare contemplates a potential scenario of their leader, Mumin, absconding to Yemen, should Northeastern State’s resilience prevail. Yet, despair could trigger retribution—a portent of terror unfurling in cities like Bosaso.
Amidst this melee, one query persists—can the resilience of Northeastern State’s forces translate into lasting peace, or does a cycle of insurgency-laden engagement loom indefinitely?
Report By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring
