Rising ISIS Threat to U.S. Homeland Spurs AFRICOM Airstrikes in Somalia

The United States has sharply escalated airstrikes and partner operations in Somalia, pushing the fight against the Islamic State group and al-Shabab deeper into militant strongholds to blunt plots aimed at the U.S. and Europe, according to Lt. Gen. John Brennan, deputy commander of U.S. Africa Command.

Brennan, a former Special Forces leader who served in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, said the tempo is designed to deny militants time, space and capability to plan attacks. “There’s ISIS-inspired threats. They plot against the United States homeland as well as Europe. So that’s kind of the nexus of the threat,” he said. “American citizens on social media get recruited to do bad things inside America. And then there’s ISIS lead and ISIS resource cells that are capable of larger-scale attacks… We’re playing the away game.”

AFRICOM conducted 124 airstrikes in Somalia in 2025 against ISIS-Somalia and al-Shabab targets and infrastructure — roughly 12 times the number flown in 2024. In January 2026 alone, U.S. forces mounted 26 additional attacks, compared with 10 across all of 2024, underscoring how quickly the campaign has accelerated.

The objective, Brennan said, is straightforward: keep extremists on the run so they cannot orchestrate complex plots. “When you give a terrorist organization that has resourcing like ISIS time and space to plot and plan, those ISIS and terrorist-led attacks can happen,” he said. “If they’re on the run, and they’re constantly worried about surviving, they can’t be as effective at planning and plotting.”

The general argued that Somalia has become a central node in the Islamic State group’s global architecture. “The caliph — absolute leader — of the global ISIS network, Abdulqadir Mumin, is a Somali, and he is in the Golis Mountains along with a lot of his key leaders,” he said. “From that location they direct terrorist activities, not just across Africa. He is directing global ISIS operations that go to the Far East, Europe and the U.S.”

Pressed on whether U.S. forces are hunting Mumin, Brennan did not equivocate. “Yes, absolutely. We want to make sure he has no safe space anywhere,” he said, noting that successive ISIS “caliphs” have been killed. “We’re on no. 4 right now.”

While Washington is leading with airpower and intelligence, the ground fight is increasingly carried by Somali partners, particularly in the northeast. Brennan said U.S.-enabled Puntland State Defense Forces have clawed back “well over half” of the territory once held by ISIS-Somalia in Puntland State, an autonomous region. “We’ve had a lot of success targeting that network,” he said. “Our partners have taken large swathes of terrain back… taking back terrain, capturing a great number of ISIS operatives, as well as a lot of their material.”

AFRICOM’s role, he said, is now largely “remote advise and assist,” with U.S. units providing intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance feeds, precision airstrikes and occasional lift — what Brennan colloquially described as giving Somali units “a ride to work” for raids. “We’ve given them tools that allow them to see what the ISR aircraft are seeing. We can show them things on a moving map that they’re carrying on their chest.”

In the south, the fight is more complex. Al-Shabab — al-Qaida’s affiliate in Somalia — remains entrenched and well-funded. “That threat has definitely morphed over the last year or so, as they are coordinating with the Houthis,” Brennan said. While he described the group as “not as much [an] external operations threat,” he called it “the strongest, largest, most well financed part of the al Qaeda global franchise,” with a clear aim: “to take over Mogadishu and turn Somalia into an al Qaeda caliphate.”

Regionally, U.S. officers see progress in building a web of partners to absorb more of the fight. Ambassador Robert Scott, who serves as deputy to the AFRICOM commander for civil-military engagement, said governments around Somalia have increasingly shouldered responsibilities. He cited Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda, as well as North Western State of Somalia, Puntland State and Jubaland. “Finding partners who are willing to engage in the fight against both ISIS and al-Shabab,” Scott said, “has been very effective.”

For Washington, the strategic logic is not only kinetic. The campaign is also intended to shut off a permissive “safe haven” that could incubate plots while creating conditions for stability. Brennan framed the effort as part counterterrorism, part economic opening. “There’s natural resources in Somalia that, because of the security situation, the Somalis have not benefited from,” he said. “Now the Somalis are realizing they may have critical minerals.” He added that there is liquefied natural gas off the coast of Mogadishu. “Our biggest weapon system, if you will, from an African perspective, is our private sector economy. If we can get that in there… that is a guarantor of security.”

That mix of pressure and promise is backed by a political mandate to strike. In February 2025, President Donald Trump posted a stark message about Somalia-directed threats, saying of ISIS and others who would attack Americans: “WE WILL FIND YOU, AND WE WILL KILL YOU!” Brennan’s remarks suggest the military is translating that posture into sustained operational tempo, leader-focused targeting and partner-enabled ground pressure.

Whether that momentum can be sustained will hinge on several variables: intelligence accuracy to minimize civilian harm while keeping militants off-balance; the staying power of Somali and regional forces; and the success of turning security gains into durable governance and basic services that make extremist returns less likely.

Brennan was blunt about the end state in the north: if Puntland State forces continue to press, he believes ISIS-Somalia “may cease to exist before too long.” But he also tied the entire campaign back to the core mission that drives AFRICOM’s posture. “Our main mission is to secure the homeland — make sure that none of this threat migrates back to our shores,” he said. “I think we’ve been pretty successful at that.”

What to watch in 2026:

• The hunt for Abdulqadir Mumin and the durability of ISIS-Somalia after leadership losses.
• Whether al-Shabab’s claimed coordination with the Houthis translates into new tactics or cross-theater effects.
• Puntland State’s ability to hold and govern retaken terrain without a resurgence of ISIS cells.
• Regional partners’ capacity — in Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda and Somali federal states — to share the burden as U.S. operations remain “advise and assist.”
• Early signs that security gains enable lawful investment in critical minerals and LNG, testing whether economic openings can reinforce stability.

The “away game” doctrine — hitting networks abroad to keep plots from maturing at home — is not new. What is new is how forcefully it has been reapplied to Somalia. If the current pace holds, 2026 will test the proposition at scale: that relentless pressure, paired with capable local partners and a path to legitimate economic activity, can shut down one of the Islamic State group’s most consequential nodes while containing al-Shabab’s ambitions in the south.

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.