Oil prices rise as traders monitor fragile US-Iran ceasefire

Osmond ChiaBusiness reporterThursday April 9, 2026

Oil prices climbed in Asian trading on Thursday as markets tracked the increasingly shaky US-Iran ceasefire and what it could mean for shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

The two-week truce, already described as conditional, came under fresh pressure after Israel carried out a series of deadly strikes in Lebanon, drawing a warning from Tehran of a “regret‑inducing response” if the attacks go on.

Oil prices plunged on Wednesday after the announcement of the agreement that includes the reopening of the key Strait of Hormuz waterway.

Shipping through the strategic route has been badly disrupted after Iran threatened to strike vessels attempting to use the strait in retaliation for US-Israeli airstikes on Iran.

Global benchmark Brent crude rose 2.2% to $96.70 (£72.18), while US-traded West Texas Intermediate gained 2.8% to $96.90.

Even so, crude remains well above the levels seen before the war began on 28 February.

The move higher reflects signs that negotiations between Iran and the US were “still fragile”, according to OCBC bank strategist Sim Moh Siong.

He said the market’s main focus in the coming days will be whether energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz can flow normally again.

There is also uncertainty over how Tehran intends to manage vessel movement, Sim said.

Traders are watching closely for any shift in oil supply, while the relationship between Iran and the US is “obviously fragile”, Danny Price from consultancy Frontier Economics.

With some damaged oil and gas facilities likely to take time to repair, prices are expected to stay elevated for at least a year, he added.

Major Asian markets eased on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 0.5%, while the Kospi in South Korea dropped 1.2%.

The ceasefire was announced on Tuesday evening Washington time, just before a 20:00 EDT (00:00 GMT on Wednesday) deadline set by US President Donald Trump.

He had warned that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if no deal was reached.

One condition of the agreement was that ships would be able to use the Strait of Hormuz safely.

Ships in the Gulf have been warned by Iran’s navy that any vessels seeking to cross the Strait of Hormuz without permission “will be targeted and destroyed”, shipping brokerage firm SSY has confirmed to BBC Verify.

Only a handful of vessels have passed through the waterway since the deal was announced — far fewer than the roughly 130 ships that moved through daily before the war.

Maritime tracking firm Pole Star Global said it would take at least 10 days to clear the backlog of vessels, even if traffic returns to normal levels.

In recent weeks, some countries, including Malaysia, India and the Philippines – have negotiated safe passage for its ships.

There is also disagreement over whether Lebanon is included in the ceasefire.

On Wednesday, Israel launched its heaviest bombardment of the country in this conflict, killing at least 182 people.

Hezbollah said in a statement posted on social media that it had fired rockets at northern Israel. The Iran-backed militia says it was in response to ceasefire violations.

US Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to take part in negotiations with Iran in Pakistan on Saturday.