Mogadishu Fuel Prices Surge 77% as Middle East Conflict Roils Global Oil Markets

MOGADISHU, Somalia — Fuel prices in Somalia’s capital surged nearly 77% overnight on Sunday, intensifying pressure on households and businesses already strained by rising living costs and supply disruptions across the region.

The price of gasoline jumped from about $0.65 to $1.15 per liter late Friday, according to traders and drivers. By rush hour, cars queued at multiple Mogadishu stations as motorists scrambled to fill up, while taxi and three-wheeler (Bajaj) operators warned they may have to raise fares to stay afloat.

“I went to bed paying 65 cents, and when I woke up the price was over one dollar,” said Mohamed Ahmed, a taxi driver. “It is very difficult for us to support our families if fuel is this expensive.”

Market analysts link the spike to escalating military tensions in the Middle East following reported U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which have rattled global energy markets. Heightened security risks for oil tankers in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, along with rising war-risk insurance premiums and concerns over potential disruptions to refineries and export terminals, have added to supply costs and volatility.

• In Mogadishu, pump prices rose from $0.65 to $1.15 per liter overnight.
• U.S. benchmark crude settled Friday at $90.90 per barrel, up 36% from a week earlier.
• Brent crude closed at $92.69, a 27% weekly gain.
• Analysts cite shipping risks through the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Hormuz, alongside higher insurance costs, as key drivers.

Somalia relies almost entirely on imported fuel, making it particularly vulnerable to external shocks. A sustained run of higher oil prices would ripple through the economy: transport operators are likely to raise fares; the cost of moving goods would climb; and electricity tariffs could increase as businesses and households that depend on diesel generators face steeper operating expenses.

Small businesses across the city — from fish sellers and cold-storage vendors to construction crews and delivery services — said the sudden rise in pump prices threatens already thin margins. For low-income families, any fare increase on taxis or public transport can quickly translate into fewer trips to markets, schools and clinics, and higher prices for everyday staples.

The broader regional outlook remains uncertain. Ships carrying an estimated 20 million barrels of oil per day have reportedly faced delays in the Persian Gulf, where passage through the Strait of Hormuz — a strategic chokepoint bordered in part by Iran — has become increasingly risky. Meanwhile, rerouting away from the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait adds days to voyages and further elevates freight and insurance costs.

Energy traders say the path of prices will hinge on whether regional tensions escalate or ease in the coming days. For Mogadishu motorists, however, the shock is immediate — and for now, unavoidable. With fuel costs elevated, residents are bracing for knock-on increases in food prices and services as Somalia’s import-dependent economy absorbs another global jolt.

By Ali Musa

Axadle Times international–Monitoring.