Djibouti Holds Presidential Election as Longtime Leader Seeks Sixth Term

MOGADISHU, Somalia — Djibouti went to the polls on Friday in a presidential election that is all but certain to hand longtime leader Ismaïl Omar Guelleh a sixth term, after lawmakers removed presidential age limits last year.

Guelleh, 78, has governed the Horn of Africa nation of roughly 1 million people for more than 20 years. In the 2021 vote, he won nearly 99% of the ballots cast. This time, he faces just one opponent, Mohamed Farah Samatar, a former member of the ruling party, in a contest analysts describe as lacking meaningful competition. Opposition groups regularly stay away from elections, saying political freedoms are tightly constrained.

Guelleh came to power in 1999, taking over from his uncle, former President Hassan Gouled Aptidon, and carrying forward a family-dominated political order that has defined Djibouti for decades. The election was observed by regional monitors from the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.

Officials are expected to release results within a day or two.

“The scrapping of term limits in Djibouti is less about electoral competition and more about preserving regime continuity in a highly strategic state,” Mohamed Husein Gaas of the Raad Peace Research Institute told The Associated Press.

“While it raises concerns about democratic backsliding, external actors are likely to prioritize stability given Djibouti’s critical role in Red Sea security and global trade routes, especially amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East,” he said. Djibouti is home to several foreign military bases, including those of the U.S., China, France, and Japan, reflecting its outsized importance on a vital shipping corridor between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Income from those bases, together with port services for neighboring Ethiopia, forms the backbone of the economy.

That dependence, however, also leaves the country vulnerable. Djibouti relies heavily on Ethiopian traffic through its ports, while wider disruptions — including insecurity in Red Sea shipping lanes — can quickly threaten revenue.