US-Iran ceasefire deal strains ahead of talks as oil flows tighten

Tensions are mounting around a fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, with Washington accusing Tehran of failing to honour commitments on the Strait of Hormuz and Israel launching strikes on Lebanon that Iran says breach the truce.

There was still no indication that Iran intended to ease its near-total blockade of the strait, a choke point that has triggered the most severe disruption ever seen in global energy supplies.

Iran pointed to Israel’s continuing assault on Lebanon, including what were described as the war’s heaviest strikes, as one of the main obstacles to holding the ceasefire together.

US President Donald Trump said in a social media post that Iran was doing a “very poor job” of allowing oil to pass through the Strait.

Donald Trump said Iran was doing a ‘very poor job’ of allowing oil to pass through the strait

In another post, he said oil shipments would resume, though he gave no indication of what steps the US might take to make that happen.

During the first 24 hours of the ceasefire, which Mr Trump announced on Tuesday, only one oil products tanker and five dry bulk carriers passed through the Strait. Before the war, the waterway typically handled about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows and around 140 ships each day.

Fresh attacks

Israel’s military said early on that it had struck ten launchers in Lebanon after rockets were fired toward northern Israel, and that the Iran-allied armed group Hezbollah launched a missile at Israel, setting off air raid sirens.

The Times of Israel reported that the missile was intercepted.

Hezbollah said it had struck Israeli military infrastructure in the northern city of Haifa.

The US and Israel have said the latest ceasefire does not extend to Lebanon, which Israel invaded last month, alongside the war on Iran, in a campaign to root out Hezbollah.

Iran and Pakistan, which served as mediators, have insisted that Lebanon was clearly included in the agreement.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who is expected to lead the Iranian delegation opposite US Vice President JD Vance, said on social media that Lebanon and the wider network of Iran’s regional allies were inseparable from any ceasefire arrangement.

In a statement carrying a defiant tone, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran would seek retribution over the war.

“We will certainly not leave unpunished the criminal aggressors who attacked ⁠our country. We will undoubtedly demand compensation for every single damage inflicted,” he said in the statement.

The deal for a two-week truce, brokered by Pakistan, was reached only hours before a deadline Mr Trump said would lead to US attacks on Iran’s power plants and bridges and the destruction of “a whole civilisation.”

US-Iran talks scheduled for tomorrow

In Pakistan, authorities were ‌ preparing for the opening round of US-Iran talks tomorrow, aimed at resolving the conflict that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February.

Iran on Wednesday released a ten-point proposal for ending the war, calling for it to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz, recognition of Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment, the lifting of sanctions and an end to the war, including the campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Although he said Israel would press ahead with attacks on Hezbollah, Israeli ⁠Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose government rejected an offer for direct talks with Lebanon last month, said he had ordered preparations for peace talks to begin as soon as possible, including efforts to disarm Hezbollah.

“The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon,” he said.

Iranians mark the death of the country’s slain supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran

A senior Lebanese official told Reuters that Lebanon had spent the past day trying to secure a temporary ceasefire that could open the door to broader talks with Israel, calling it a “separate track but the same model” as the US-Iran truce.

A senior Israeli official said Israel was preparing to reduce the scale of its attacks in Lebanon.

US media outlets reported that Mr Trump said he had asked Mr Netanyahu to be more “low-key” in Lebanon.

Another Israeli official said talks with Lebanon were expected to open in Washington next week.

A US State Department official confirmed that the US would host next week’s meeting to “discuss ongoing ceasefire negotiations.”

Hezbollah politician Ali Fayyad said in a statement ‌ that the group opposed direct negotiations with Israel and that the Lebanese government should insist on a ceasefire before any further steps are taken.

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