Questions Persist Over the Reality of the Middle East Ceasefire

Washington’s trust with Tehran collapsed last February, when talks over Iran’s nuclear programme fell apart after the United States, alongside Israel, launched their joint operation known as Epic Fury.

Now, as Washington and Tehran work with Pakistan to broker an end to the violence, rebuilding confidence has become central to the diplomatic push.

The Vice President’s entry into the US negotiating team may be a sign that the White House wants to accelerate progress, especially given JD Vance’s long-held doubts about foreign military entanglements.

And over the past 12 hours, both sides have appeared to offer gestures of goodwill, with key items on a potential deal seemingly moving into place.

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz: Check

Confidence-building between the US and Iran: Check

After weeks of fighting, the prospect of this conflict ending feels closer than at any point so far. As French President Emmanuel Macron put it, events appear to be moving in the right direction.

Even so, major doubts linger over how much substance lies behind the latest statements and understandings.

Oil prices have fallen 10% since the reopening of the strait was announced.

But that does not mean supplies will quickly surge back onto the market.

Questions about safe passage remain unresolved. Will shipping crews be willing to move through a waterway where mines are reportedly still laid in some areas?

Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz is completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire in Lebanon.

How durable that truce will be is another matter. Hezbollah has demanded the full withdrawal of IDF forces, while Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon and have warned residents not to return.

Donald Trump has also said the US naval blockade will stay in place.

“BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE.” he posted on truth social.

In the end, the most important item left on the checklist may also be the hardest to resolve: Iran’s nuclear programme.

What becomes of Iran’s “nuclear dust”, as Donald Trump has described it, what future awaits the programme itself, and who will be responsible for overseeing it?

For all the apparent momentum, this is not yet a finished agreement, and the most difficult issue still lies ahead.

The US President said yesterday that he could travel to Pakistan this weekend for a second round of negotiations with Iran.

After today’s significant progress, that possibility now appears more realistic.

Read more:Israel and Lebanon ceasefire begins as Trump says Iran deal ‘very close’Follow live updates from the Middle East