Arrayed against each other for the 11th time in a major tournament, Italy and Spain are poised to clash at Euro 2024, with Opta’s extensive data providing the insights. Here’s the skinny on the impending match in the gritty city of Gelsenkirchen.
Both squads kicked off their campaigns with wins but boasted contrasting forms. Spain breezed past Croatia with a resounding 3-0 win, tying the heaviest loss Croatia ever suffered in international tourneys. Italy, on the other hand, scrambled from behind after Albania’s jolting early score, 23 seconds into the game, a record-setter for the fastest European Championship goal. Nonetheless, quick-fire strikes from Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella maintained Italy’s aspirations to echo Spain’s consecutive Euros victories of 2008 and 2012.
This skirmish marks not only the 11th face-off between these two titans at critical tournaments but also sets a record for such encounters in European football history. Moreover, since 2008 these nations have collided in every European Championship, another unmatched streak.
Delving into Opta’s data cache, here’s the forecast for Thursday: Even though Italy boasts a sturdy historical upper hand against Spain in their tournament duels (with a sole defeat in 10 matches), the predictors tip a 45.8% chance in favor of Spain snagging another win here at Euro 2024.
However, Spain also thrived in previous face-offs, winning their latest two against Italy in the Nations League, although they have yet to secure a third consecutive victory over the Azzurri. Notably, Spain clinched wins in their last three Euros matchups when facing the defending champs, advancing to the finals every time.
Spain overachieved against Croatia, surpassing their expected goals (xG) target by 0.99%, but still left some chances begging, missing four substantial opportunities in Berlin. Italy also exceeded their xG marginally by 0.44, but only managed five shots on target from 17 attempts against Albania. It suggests that precision in front of the goal could swing the pendulum in this tightly-knotted group.
In the new era, sans stalwarts Chiellini and Bonucci, Italy leans on a youthful roster with Riccardo Calafiori and Bastoni reinforcing the team’s defense. Spalletti’s gamble on youth seemed precarious initially, but young guns are stepping up, promising resilience.
As Spain defied their typical possession-heavy game to best Croatia, the spotlight shifts to whether La Roja might abandon tiki-taka for good. With fresher strategies and a dynamic youngster, Lamine Yamal, stirring the plot, Spain radiates a renewed tactical brightness.
As we gear up for Thursday’s showdown in Gelsenkirchen, pivotal encounters could dictate the tempo. Watch for Italy’s midfield maestro Nicolo Barella to possibly sway the game, while Spain’s Fabian Ruiz aims to disrupt any rhythm Barella and his comrades try to enter.
Thus, the stage is set. Can Spain’s inventiveness prevail, or will Italy’s blend of grit and youth uphold their historical edge? Only time will dispense the verdict.
