“The caliph charts the strategy, fueling their growth beyond our predictions,” an anonymous official confided while divulging intelligence.
Recent U.S. intelligence evaluates rumors flowing from Somalia indicating IS emir Abu Hafs al-Hashemi al-Qurashi’s journey from Syria or Iraq, passing through Yemen to Northeastern State in Somalia’s northeast.
Additionally, warnings from Somali security underscore IS-Somalia’s muscle, partly due to a surge of fighters and operatives from Yemen.
Highlighting heightened U.S. scrutiny on IS in Somalia, another American official verified to VOA that an airstrike late last month near Dhaadaar, 81 kilometers southeast of Bosaso, aimed at IS-Somalia leader Abdulqadir Mumin.
Initial findings from U.S. Africa Command on the May 31 strike reported three IS militants dead. Yet, clarity on Mumin’s fate remains elusive, according to the official.
Numerous Somali security experts indicated that no proof has emerged confirming Mumin’s death, though there were injuries to three Somalis and three foreigners.
A Somali security source expressed doubt that Mumin was present during the strike, noting his caution to avoid areas with active telecom infrastructure, which was operational then.
Regardless of the result, U.S. focus remains steadfast.
“We must unequivocally keep monitoring the terrorist threat,” John Kirby, White House national security communications adviser, emphasized during a Monday briefing, regarding the Somalia strike.
“The threat persists, and we must persist in our pursuit,” he added.
Reports of IS dispatching its paramount leader to Somalia, alongside possible elevation of Mumin to caliph, met skepticism from former counterterrorism officials.
“Mumin’s significance, along with IS-Somalia, ISCAP, and the al-Karrar office, is undeniable,” stated Edmund Fitton-Brown, ex-UN counterterrorism senior and current senior advisor for the Counter Extremism Project.
“However, ISIS is deeply racist and insists on a caliph descended from Muhammad,” he told VOA. “I doubt they’re ready for an African caliph.”
Questions linger over why IS would dispatch its chief on a hazardous trek from Syria or Iraq to Somalia.
“Logistically tough but feasible via human smuggling or existing networks,” noted Colin Clarke, The Soufan Group’s research director.
“To what end? What local infrastructure could absorb this individual and render them effective?” Clarke queried. “Somalia is hardly free from counterterrorism operations… It’s not beyond U.S. intelligence targeting.”
Clarke, like other experts, warned against underestimating IS-Somalia.
Despite IS-Somalia’s modest size — estimated at 100 to 400 fighters — and limited territorial control, Clarke stated that this affiliate has become a linchpin in the group’s broader logistics network.
This view aligns with United Nations counterterrorism reports based on member state intelligence.
Back in 2022, Somalia was cited as the location of al-Karrar, one of nine regional offices supporting the terror group’s global functions.
The office, under Mumin’s recent oversight, evolved into a financial hub, funneling funds from Yemen to Afghanistan, purchasing weapons, and paying IS fighters in Somalia, Mozambique, and Congo.
Current evaluations suggest, through al-Karrar, IS-Somalia finances IS-Afghan operations, sending $25,000 monthly in cryptocurrency to IS-Khorasan Province.
This ongoing expansion signals a key role for Mumin.
“IS-Somalia and al-Karrar’s pivotal position among provinces could place Mumin as the general director of provinces, orchestrating IS strategy globally,” commented Aaron Zelin, Washington Institute for Near East Policy fellow, focusing on jihadism.
“Historically, such a role was based in Iraq or Syria,” Zelin told VOA, pointing out Africa as a burgeoning focus for IS, albeit with its core identity tethered to the Middle East.
“Despite fluctuations, the organization’s heart remains in Iraq and Syria,” he asserted.
