Cooperation Dynamics Unveil: The Somali-Turkish-US Triangle

In today’s ever-shifting global landscape, the intricate dance of international relations can often resemble a well-choreographed ballet. Sometimes, however, it feels more like a precariously balanced tightrope act. Take, for instance, the recent developments between Somalia, Turkey, and the United States. A captivating narrative unfolds, replete with geopolitical tensions and significant alliances.

This emerging story is as dynamic as it is thought-provoking, echoing the words of former U.S. President Woodrow Wilson, who once said, “Friendship is the only cement that will ever hold the world together.” But what happens when the cement begins to crack?

On a bright day in March, under the vigilant sun that graces Mogadishu, something unusual occurred at the General Dhagabadan Training Centre. A Somali soldier stood at attention, a silent sentinel witnessing the ever-changing tides of alliances and enmities. This was no ordinary day; it was March 19, 2024, and the air was thick with whispers of change.

In a surprising turn of events, Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud made a decisive move, dismissing his defense minister, Abuldkadir Mohamed Nur. The reasoning behind this decision may leave some scratching their heads. Could it be the persistent nudging from the US military? As sources confide to Middle East Eye, it appears that Washington’s interests played a significant role.

It’s fascinating how the winds of change blow through the corridors of power. Nur, once entrusted with the defense of his nation, finds himself shifting to the role of Minister of Ports. An eyebrow-raising reassignment, especially when one considers the broader context. US support for Somalia’s battle against al-Shabab has reportedly slowed, raising questions of underlying motives.

We’ve learned from insiders that a key factor in this reshuffling was Nur’s ambition to fortify military, energy, and aerospace ties with Turkey. This ambition, while bold, didn’t sit well with Washington, which casts its net of influence over the Horn of Africa, occasionally intertwining its threads with the United Arab Emirates.

Under Nur’s astute leadership, a significant agreement—one that bore the promise of strengthened naval, trade, and defense ties—was inked between Somalia and Turkey in February last year. Not entirely disclosed, this deal painted a vivid picture of a future where Turkey would play a pivotal role in safeguarding Somali waters. Furthermore, it aimed to establish a Somali navy and explore untapped energy resources, seen as a countermeasure to Ethiopia’s naval pact with North Western State of Somalia.

Yet, therein lies the conundrum. Washington, seemingly perturbed by Turkey’s plans to develop a spaceport in Somalia and potentially even launch rockets reminiscent of long-range ballistic missiles, made its discontent known. In their eyes, these developments perhaps sparked images of an arms race rather than a partnership.

And as if the ice wasn’t thin enough, Ankara’s recent ventures into Somali oil and gas territories were met with furrowed American brows. The final nail in the coffin, however, may have been Turkey’s deployment of two Bayraktar Akinci armed drones to Mogadishu, a move that, for Washington, seemed too audacious to ignore. The message was clear: if Nur remained, American security cooperation in Somalia would be up for reconsideration.

This heightened tension isn’t mere conjecture. The US embassy in Mogadishu recently issued a security warning regarding a potential al-Shabab attack targeting the city’s airport, prompting significant flight disruptions. This was preceded by President Trump’s call for airstrikes targeting Islamic State leaders in Somalia, a calculated step in America’s broader strategy.

While the Danab Special Forces, an elite Somali unit trained under the watchful eye of the US Africa Command, faced funding cuts, the Somali government now finds itself contemplating alternative funding avenues to sustain this formidable force.

Reflecting on these developments, Ahmed Abdullahi Sheikh, a former commander of Danab, praised President Mohamud’s decision, stating, “I wholeheartedly welcome the change in leadership.” This sentiment echoes the necessity of adapting to the pragmatic tides of realpolitik to safeguard national interests.

Now, turning the spotlight to Turkey, a Turkish official downplayed the emotional ramifications of Nur’s dismissal, emphasizing that Turkey’s relationship with Somalia remains firmly rooted in institutional cooperation, sans personal entanglements. “This will not affect our relationship,” the official confidently asserted. “All agreements with Mogadishu were signed with the government and the Somali president.”

Turkey’s commitment to Somalia remains unswayed, boasting significant investment in infrastructure and defense. Tunc Demirtas, a regional expert, forsees a future where Turkey will continue bolstering Somalia’s counterterrorism efforts. “Moving forward, the focus will be on strengthening institutional structures rather than individual actors, ensuring that strategic cooperation continues in alignment with mutual interests,” he noted. In this intricate ballet of international relations, the enduring theme remains one of hope for sustainable partnerships, steadfast alliances, and a shared vision for the future.

As these narratives continue to evolve, one can’t help but ponder: In the intricate tapestry of global partnerships, how do nations balance strategic ambitions with unwavering alliances?

Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring