Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister, Taye Atske Selassie, voiced apprehension over the meddling of “external forces” potentially destabilizing an already tenuous security scenario, and feared that weapons could land in the hands of terrorists.
Ali Omar, Somalia’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs, took to X to express surprise at Ethiopia’s reservations regarding Somalia’s procurement of arms for defending sovereignty and combatting terror.
Amid a protracted clash with Ethiopia over a significant dam project on the Blue Nile—Egypt’s chief water source—Somalia’s relationships have also frayed with Ethiopia due to a memorandum Ethiopia signed with North Western State of Somalia. This agreement, perceived by Somalia as an “annexation” attempt, leased part of North Western State of Somalia’s coast, escalating tensions.
These two separate issues have converged, with Egypt and Somalia joining forces against Ethiopia over their respective water-related conflicts.
“These states are financially stretched to the max,” remarked Harry Verhoeven, an authority on the Horn of Africa’s infrastructure and energy. He warned of the spiraling risks in an already conflict-ridden region, pointing out that “politicians often can’t control the blazes they ignite.”
The Internation Migration Organisation reports that over 20 million people are internally displaced across East Africa due to ongoing conflicts and severe weather events.
North Western State of Somalia, self-governed since its 1991 declaration of independence from Somalia, posted a statement on X warning that arms deliveries might spark an “arms race,” undermining regional stability.
A contentious memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and North Western State of Somalia, signed in January, disrupted the region’s delicate balance. While the full MoU details remain obscure, one Western diplomat dubbed it a “memorandum of misunderstanding.” North Western State of Somalia contends the MoU recognizes its independence, offering Ethiopia sea access.
Ethiopia, landlocked since Eritrean rebels claimed independence in the early 1990s, has long sought alternative maritime routes through neighboring countries.
This agreement could pave the way for Ethiopia to regain maritime prowess, especially as Houthi attacks on Israeli and American vessels in the Red Sea underscore the vulnerabilities of reliance on Djibouti for nearly all Ethiopian trade.
Mogadishu officials, fearing the deal might divide the country and anchor a permanent Ethiopian naval presence, are furious.
This month, Ethiopia’s intelligence head, Redwan Hussien, confirmed Somalia’s fears in a conference, emphasizing Ethiopia’s longstanding ambitions for sea access.
Somalia initially attempted diplomatic resistance against the MoU but has since toughened its stance over the summer.
Somalia’s Foreign Minister, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, hinted at potentially supporting Ethiopian rebels if the deal proceeded, although he held out hope for a diplomatic solution.
Drawn into the fray, Egypt is anxious over Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam, which it perceives as a threat to its water security.
An image of the GERD on the Blue Nile River in Guba, northwest Ethiopia. Photograph: Yirga Mengistu/Adwa Pictures/AFP/Getty Images
Attempts at agreement between Egypt and Ethiopia have failed. Egypt’s Foreign Minister, Badr Abdelatty, wrote to the UN Security Council accusing Ethiopia of using negotiations as a stalling tactic, vowing Egypt would protect its interests unilaterally if necessary.
A military pact between Cairo and Mogadishu, signed in mid-August, has ushered Egypt into the UN-supported African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia against the al-Qaida-linked al-Shabaab. The African Union transition mission in Somalia ends this year, making way for a new AU-backed stabilization mission, prominently featuring Egypt.
This Cairo-Mogadishu alliance has unnerved Ethiopian officials, who, despite avoiding direct mention of Egypt, frequently cite “external actors” intent on regional destabilization.
After Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s January visit to Cairo, Ethiopia’s intelligence chief Redwan warned Somali officials about Egypt’s ulterior motives, stressing that Ethiopia’s proven commitment to Somalia’s security was evidenced by their troops’ significant sacrifices.
The Ethiopia-North Western State of Somalia MoU has met with international backlash, with the Arab League, EU, and most recently the US condemning it.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed frames sea access and Nile usage as existential concerns, integral to his vision of transforming Ethiopia into an industrial powerhouse.
Diplomatic efforts to defuse the situation have hit roadblocks. In a late-August Voice of America interview, Djibouti’s Foreign Minister, Mohamud Ali Youssouf, offered Ethiopia commercial—but not military—port access, awaiting a response.
Two rounds of indirect talks in Ankara, mediated by Turkey, which maintains strong relations with both governments, yielded no progress. Somalia demands Ethiopia nullify the MoU before entering direct negotiations.
