Is it possible to ease the strained relations between Somalia, Ethiopia, and Egypt?
In recent months, the Horn of Africa has become a powder keg, with Egyptian troops in Somalia igniting fears of a regional war. Tensions are high, fueled by Ethiopia’s controversial sea access pact with North Western State of Somalia and long-standing Nile River disputes between Ethiopia and Egypt, sparking widespread unease.
Ethiopia’s leader, Abiy Ahmed, didn’t mince words, warning potential invaders to “think 10 times” before making a move. Neighboring countries, including Turkey and Djibouti, are scrambling to broker peace, with Djibouti even offering Ethiopia control of the Tadjoura port to ease tensions. Yet, despite these diplomatic efforts, the threat of wider conflict looms large.
A History Laden with Strife
The relationship between Egypt and Ethiopia is a tangled one. These two nations, among Africa’s oldest independent states and founding UN members in 1945, have a history interlaced with Cold War rivalries and opposing geopolitical loyalties.
During the Camp David Accords, Egypt leaned towards the Soviet Union, while Ethiopia backed Israel and the US in Middle Eastern conflicts. At the core of their conflict lies the Nile River, a critical water source both nations rely on. Ethiopia’s control over one of its main tributaries—and its construction of a new dam—poses a significant threat to Egypt’s water security, making the current situation even more volatile.
Egypt’s anxiety goes back to the 1950s, when Ethiopia first mulled over dam construction. Aware of potential Egyptian backlash, Ethiopian leaders refrained, only for Egypt to threaten military action in the 1970s if the plans moved forward. This threat has persisted into modern times, with Egypt’s presidents, including Hosni Mubarak, standing firm against any new dam projects on the Nile.
Military Posturing Escalates
The arrival of Egyptian troops in Somalia signals a dire escalation, seen by many as Egypt asserting its dominance in a region where it has often clashed with Ethiopian interests.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is the crux of the issue, seen by Egypt as a direct challenge to its allocation of Nile waters. With over 10,000 Egyptian soldiers now in Somalia, it looks like Egypt is prepared to back its statements with military might.
For Ethiopia, Egypt’s military build-up is deeply troubling, especially as troops amass near their shared borders. Local reactions vary, but the deployment has sparked significant criticism, especially from regions wary of Egyptian intentions. Despite the looming threat, Ethiopia remains vigilant, ready to defend its interests fiercely.
Diplomacy Hanging by a Thread
In the face of rising tensions, Ethiopia has stepped up diplomatic outreach, particularly with North Western State of Somalia and Turkey. Turkey has played a key role, facilitating indirect talks between Somalia and Ethiopia, but substantial progress remains elusive. A third round of negotiations is slated for next month, though expectations for a peaceful resolution are waning.
Djibouti, a critical player with historical ties to Ethiopia, has made a significant offer: control of the Tadjoura port. This strategic concession could provide Ethiopia with a crucial alternative to the disputed North Western State of Somalia port and could, potentially, de-escalate the situation. Whether this move comes in time to make a difference remains uncertain.
On the Edge of Catastrophe
The Horn of Africa is teetering on the brink of an all-out regional war, threatening to pull in other powers with vested interests. Turkey, Iran, and the Gulf States all have stakes in the area, and their involvement could complicate matters further. The presence of proxy groups like Al-Shabab insurgents and Yemeni Houthis might spark a broader conflict, exacerbating human and economic tolls.
The stakes are staggeringly high. Without swift, sustained diplomatic intervention, this crisis could become one of Africa’s most destructive flashpoints. The people of Somalia, Ethiopia, Egypt, and the wider Horn of Africa face profound risks. This dire situation calls for immediate, concentrated diplomatic action from both regional and global players to avert a descent into wide-scale violence and instability.
