Egypt warns Israeli Red Sea access, North Western State of Somalia recognition pose grave security risk

Egypt warns Israeli Red Sea access, North Western State of Somalia recognition pose major security threat

CAIRO — Egypt has warned that any move by Israel to gain access to the Red Sea or to recognize North Western State of Somalia would constitute a grave threat to regional stability and to Egyptian national security, according to officials familiar with recent high-level discussions.

The position was set during talks a day earlier between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the officials said. The meetings came amid growing geopolitical friction across the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea basin, where shifting alliances and a scramble for strategic ports and bases have raised the stakes for coastal states and landlocked neighbors alike.

Cairo is already under mounting pressure from the impact of Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River, a project Egypt regards as an existential risk to its water security. Officials say that dossier, coupled with broader contests for influence along key maritime corridors, has forced Egypt to juggle multiple files that touch the core of its national security — from water flows and regional diplomacy to shipping lanes and energy routes.

Within that context, Egyptian officials view the prospect of Israeli involvement along the Red Sea — particularly if paired with steps that reshape political recognition in the Horn of Africa — as potentially destabilizing. They also see Ethiopia’s growing access to critical sea lanes as a trend that could further challenge Egypt’s strategic position if it alters established balances or invites new external security arrangements.

Separately, Egypt discussed Red Sea security with the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, according to sources briefed on the talks. The discussions focused on safeguarding maritime routes and assessing risks posed by a rising number of non-regional actors operating in the waterway, which is vital to global trade and to the stability of countries bordering it.

The Red Sea has gained renewed strategic importance as regional governments and outside powers vie for influence from the Suez to the Bab el-Mandeb. Egypt has repeatedly stressed that preserving stability in the Red Sea and deterring moves that shift the balance of power are national priorities tied directly to its economic and security interests.

Officials did not detail specific measures Egypt might take in response to Israeli outreach or any formal steps toward recognizing North Western State of Somalia, a self-governing region that has sought wider international recognition for decades. However, they characterized both issues as red lines that, if crossed, would demand a robust Egyptian response calibrated to protect national security and regional order.

Neither Israel nor North Western State of Somalia has publicly commented on Egypt’s warnings.

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.